Asphalt, Road Materials & Paving Products worked example

Asphalt Plant Emissions Risk Estimate with permit and opacity severity score of 3 score: a worked example

Here is what the math looks like when conditions slip. We hold every other input steady and drop permit and opacity severity score to 3 score, then walk the calculation through step by step. Score emissions concern from dryer exhaust severity, likelihood of high-emission operation, and detection or control confidence.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Permit and opacity severity score: 3 score (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 6)
  • High-emission event likelihood score: 5 score (held at the documented default)
  • Detection and control weakness score: 4 score (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Emissions screening score = permit/opacity severity × 0.40 + high-emission likelihood × 0.35 + detection/control weakness × 0.25.
  • Emissions screening score works out to 3.95 emissions risk score at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Permit/opacity severity score works out to 3 score at these inputs.
  • High-emission likelihood score works out to 5 score at these inputs.
  • Detection/control weakness score works out to 4 score at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where permit and opacity severity score sits at 6 score and the headline result is 5.15 emissions risk score, this scenario comes in 23.3% below the baseline at 3.95 emissions risk score.
  • The practical read: the gap between this scenario and the baseline is entirely attributable to permit and opacity severity score, so recovering it is worth quantifying in dollars before considering equipment or staffing changes. It is a relative triage tool, not a stack test or a compliance demonstration; a low score does not prove permit compliance, and actual opacity must still be measured by Method 9 or a COMS.

Results at a glance

  • Emissions screening score: 3.95 emissions risk score (headline result)
  • Permit/opacity severity score: 3 score
  • High-emission likelihood score: 5 score
  • Detection/control weakness score: 4 score

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Asphalt Plant Emissions Risk Estimate calculator, set permit and opacity severity score to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.