Industrial Equipment, Machinery & Capital Goods worked example

Equipment Quote Margin at 75% win or award probability: a worked example

Push win or award probability up to 75% and the picture changes. This example computes every intermediate figure at that operating point. Use it when reviewing machine quotes, option bundles, turnkey systems, or capital equipment project approvals.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Quoted equipment systems: 3 systems (unchanged)
  • Expected margin per system: 74,000 $ / system (unchanged)
  • Win or award probability: 75 % (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 65)
  • Commercial reserve and concession cost: 18,000 $ (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Expected equipment quote margin = quoted equipment systems × expected margin per system × win or award probability) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 184,500 $ for net equipment quote margin, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 61,500 $ / system for expected margin per system.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 166,500 $ for expected equipment quote margin.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 18,000 $ for commercial reserve and concession cost.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where win or award probability sits at 65% and the headline result is 162,300 $, this scenario comes in 13.68% above the baseline at 184,500 $.
  • It computes the net expected margin on an equipment bid by multiplying margin per system by the number of systems and the win probability, then subtracting commercial reserves and concessions. The value of this scenario is the size of the gap it exposes: that gap, priced out over a year, is the budget you can justify spending to close it.

Results at a glance

  • Net equipment quote margin: 184,500 $ (headline result)
  • Expected margin per system: 61,500 $ / system
  • Expected equipment quote margin: 166,500 $
  • Commercial reserve and concession cost: 18,000 $

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Equipment Quote Margin calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.