Manufacturing Sales Engineering, Estimating & Quoting Operations worked example
Cost Model Confidence Score at 99% target confidence: a worked example
What does the result look like when target confidence reaches 99%? The full calculation is worked below with real intermediate numbers. Use it to flag thin estimates in Manufacturing Sales Engineering, Estimating & Quoting Operations before they go out as quotes.
The inputs for this scenario
- Cost lines backed by firm quotes/data: 34 lines (unchanged)
- Total cost lines in the estimate: 40 lines (unchanged)
- Target confidence: 99 % (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 90)
Working through the calculation
- Applying the documented formula (Confidence = cost lines backed by firm data ÷ total cost lines) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
- At this operating point the engine returns 85 % for cost-model confidence, the number this scenario is built around.
- At this operating point the engine returns 14 points for gap to target.
- At this operating point the engine returns 34 value for firm-backed cost lines.
- At this operating point the engine returns 40 value for total cost lines.
How this compares with the baseline
- Against the tool's baseline example, where target confidence sits at 90% and the headline result is 85 %, this scenario lands almost exactly on the baseline at 85 %.
- A figure at this level is achievable when target confidence is genuinely sustained, not just peaked for a shift. It counts lines equally, so a high score can still mask risk if one unbacked line carries most of the dollar value — weight by cost for big estimates.
Results at a glance
- Cost-model confidence: 85 % (headline result)
- Gap to target: 14 points
- Firm-backed cost lines: 34 value
- Total cost lines: 40 value
Run it with your numbers
- Every input above is editable in the live Cost Model Confidence Score calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.
Last reviewed 2026-05-12.