{
  "name": "MFG Calcs Cost Pass-Through Index",
  "slug": "us-manufacturing-cost-pass-through",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "url": "https://www.mfgcalcs.com/signals/cost-pass-through",
  "formula": "Two equal-weight geometric (Jevons) blends of live producer prices, each reindexed to 100 at the base month: an INPUT index of raw materials (steel, aluminum, copper, resins, chemicals, ironSteel, lumber, paper) and an OUTPUT index of fabricated goods (machinery, castings, fasteners). For each lag from 0 to 6 months, the output index's year-over-year change is fit against the input index's year-over-year change shifted by that lag (OLS slope and Pearson correlation). The best-fitting lag gives the pass-through coefficient (output-YoY points per input-YoY point) and the typical delay. The current pass-through GAP is the model-implied output YoY at the best lag minus the actual output YoY: positive means input-cost inflation the relationship expects has not fully shown up in fabricated-goods prices yet.",
  "unit": "index, base month = 100; changes in percent; coefficient as output-YoY points per input-YoY point; gap in percentage points.",
  "scope": "A STATISTICAL relationship over public producer-price series, not a causal claim and not firm-level margins. Read the correlation and the lag, not just the headline coefficient.",
  "source": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes (public domain).",
  "provenance": "Derived from public-domain BLS series. Redistributable.",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "MFG Calcs (mfgcalcs.com)",
  "baseMonth": "1990-01",
  "asOf": "2026-07"
}