{ "version": "1.0.0", "baseMonth": "2021-07", "asOf": "2026-06", "history": [ [ "2021-07", 100 ], [ "2021-08", 101.98 ], [ "2021-09", 103.32 ], [ "2021-10", 105.67 ], [ "2021-11", 106.1 ], [ "2021-12", 105.01 ], [ "2022-01", 105.48 ], [ "2022-02", 106.4 ], [ "2022-03", 105.76 ], [ "2022-04", 107.76 ], [ "2022-05", 109.64 ], [ "2022-06", 110.66 ], [ "2022-07", 107.54 ], [ "2022-08", 107.59 ], [ "2022-09", 105.78 ], [ "2022-10", 101.62 ], [ "2022-11", 101.03 ], [ "2022-12", 102.39 ], [ "2023-01", 101.85 ], [ "2023-02", 101.21 ], [ "2023-03", 99.65 ], [ "2023-04", 99.13 ], [ "2023-05", 99.15 ], [ "2023-06", 99.13 ], [ "2023-07", 98.91 ], [ "2023-08", 98.33 ], [ "2023-09", 98.04 ], [ "2023-10", 97.67 ], [ "2023-11", 97.8 ], [ "2023-12", 98.11 ], [ "2024-01", 99.38 ], [ "2024-02", 99.88 ], [ "2024-03", 98.09 ], [ "2024-04", 98.22 ], [ "2024-05", 98.95 ], [ "2024-06", 100.05 ], [ "2024-07", 100.18 ], [ "2024-08", 98.8 ], [ "2024-09", 98.88 ], [ "2024-10", 99.75 ], [ "2024-11", 99.68 ], [ "2024-12", 100.76 ], [ "2025-01", 102.21 ], [ "2025-02", 103.19 ], [ "2025-03", 104.98 ], [ "2025-04", 105.13 ], [ "2025-05", 105.64 ], [ "2025-06", 106.23 ], [ "2025-07", 107.76 ], [ "2025-08", 108.09 ], [ "2025-09", 108.62 ], [ "2025-10", 109.34 ], [ "2025-11", 110.41 ], [ "2025-12", 113.99 ], [ "2026-01", 116.29 ], [ "2026-02", 118.55 ], [ "2026-03", 116.41 ], [ "2026-04", 118.9 ], [ "2026-05", 122.05 ], [ "2026-06", 122.86 ] ], "level": 122.86, "yoyPct": 15.7, "momPct": 0.7, "seasonalAdjustment": { "mixed": true, "momCalendarSharePct": 21.2, "amplitudePp": 1.9, "monthsMeasured": 59, "minObsPerCalendarMonth": 4, "note": "Month-over-month mixes seasonally adjusted labour with unadjusted producer prices and energy, so about 21.2% of its variation is calendar rather than cost (measured on 59 months of this index's own history, 4+ observations per calendar month). Year-over-year is largely immune. Estimated with centred calendar-month means, not X-13." }, "components": [ { "key": "materials", "label": "Materials (input PPI)", "weight": 0.5, "index": 129.65, "indexYearAgo": 99.06, "yoyPct": 30.9, "contributionPp": 14.4 }, { "key": "labor", "label": "Labor (factory earnings)", "weight": 0.25, "index": 126.97, "indexYearAgo": 121.4, "yoyPct": 4.6, "contributionPp": 1.31 }, { "key": "energy", "label": "Energy (power and gas)", "weight": 0.1, "index": 107.31, "indexYearAgo": 109.05, "yoyPct": -1.6, "contributionPp": -0.16 }, { "key": "tariff", "label": "Tariffs (effective rate)", "weight": 0.08, "index": 110, "indexYearAgo": 110.21, "yoyPct": -0.2, "contributionPp": -0.02 }, { "key": "currency", "label": "Import dollar (FX)", "weight": 0.07, "index": 96.57, "indexYearAgo": 94.67, "yoyPct": 2, "contributionPp": 0.13 } ], "inputStatus": [ { "key": "ppi.steel", "through": "2026-07", "lagMonths": 1, "pinning": false, "stalled": false }, { "key": "ppi.aluminum", "through": "2026-07", "lagMonths": 1, "pinning": false, "stalled": false }, { "key": "ppi.copper", "through": "2026-07", "lagMonths": 1, "pinning": false, "stalled": false }, { "key": "ppi.resins", "through": "2026-07", "lagMonths": 1, "pinning": false, "stalled": false }, { "key": "ppi.chemicals", "through": "2026-07", "lagMonths": 1, "pinning": false, "stalled": false }, { "key": "labor", "through": "2026-07", "lagMonths": 1, "pinning": false, "stalled": false }, { "key": "energy.electricity", "through": "2026-06", "lagMonths": 2, "pinning": true, "stalled": false }, { "key": "energy.naturalGas", "through": "2026-06", "lagMonths": 2, "pinning": true, "stalled": false }, { "key": "fx.eur", "through": "2026-08", "lagMonths": 0, "pinning": false, "stalled": false }, { "key": "fx.mxn", "through": "2026-08", "lagMonths": 0, "pinning": false, "stalled": false }, { "key": "fx.cny", "through": "2026-08", "lagMonths": 0, "pinning": false, "stalled": false }, { "key": "fx.cad", "through": "2026-08", "lagMonths": 0, "pinning": false, "stalled": false }, { "key": "fx.jpy", "through": "2026-08", "lagMonths": 0, "pinning": false, "stalled": false }, { "key": "tariffRate", "through": "2026-06", "lagMonths": 2, "pinning": true, "stalled": false } ], "statusNote": "Reads through 2026-06, pinned by energy.electricity and energy.naturalGas and tariffRate — 2 months behind the freshest input. The index publishes only months where every input has reported, so it advances when those inputs do.", "methodology": { "name": "MFG Calcs Manufacturing Cost Pressure Index (MCPI)", "slug": "us-manufacturing-cost-pressure-index", "version": "1.0.0", "url": "https://www.mfgcalcs.com/signals/cost-pressure-index", "formula": "One deterministic index of the input-cost pressure a U.S. manufacturer faces, joining five live drivers into a single number. Each driver becomes a sub-index reindexed to 100 at the base month: materials = equal blend of steel, aluminum, copper, resins, and chemicals PPI; labor = manufacturing average hourly earnings; energy = equal blend of industrial electricity and natural gas; tariffs = the effective-rate cost multiplier (1+rate)/(1+base rate); import dollar = import-weighted 1/FX (a weaker dollar raises the cost of imported inputs). MCPI = the weighted sum of the sub-indices. Because the level is a weighted sum, each driver's contribution to the headline year-over-year change decomposes exactly, with no residual.", "weights": "FROZEN v1.0.0 weights (sum to 100%): materials 50%, labor 25%, energy 10%, tariff 8%, currency 7%. Approximate manufacturing input-cost shares; pinned and versioned, never tuned to a result.", "unit": "index, base month = 100; changes in percent; component contributions in percentage points of the headline year-over-year change.", "scope": "An ILLUSTRATIVE composite, not an official statistic. Its value is a frozen, reproducible methodology: the same series, weights, and construction every month, so the number is comparable over time and anyone can rebuild it from the cited public data.", "source": "U.S. federal open data — BLS producer price indexes and manufacturing earnings, EIA industrial electricity and natural gas, FRED H.10 exchange rates — plus the MFG Calcs effective tariff rate over USITC DataWeb.", "provenance": "Derived from public-domain U.S. government series and the site's own committed tariff aggregate. Redistributable.", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "attribution": "MFG Calcs (mfgcalcs.com)", "baseMonth": "2021-07", "asOf": "2026-06" } }