{
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "asOf": "2026-07",
  "seriesCount": 113,
  "obsCount": 676,
  "mapeMedianPct": 5.2,
  "mapeMeanPct": 7.9,
  "mapeP90Pct": 19.5,
  "withinBandPct": {
    "5": 49.1,
    "10": 70.9
  },
  "directionHitPct": 56.4,
  "directionObs": 553,
  "byCategory": [
    {
      "category": "Factory activity",
      "seriesCount": 2,
      "obs": 12,
      "medianMapePct": 0.7
    },
    {
      "category": "Exchange rates",
      "seriesCount": 5,
      "obs": 30,
      "medianMapePct": 1.7
    },
    {
      "category": "Energy prices",
      "seriesCount": 3,
      "obs": 18,
      "medianMapePct": 2.3
    },
    {
      "category": "Labor",
      "seriesCount": 5,
      "obs": 30,
      "medianMapePct": 2.5
    },
    {
      "category": "Materials and producer prices",
      "seriesCount": 16,
      "obs": 96,
      "medianMapePct": 2.6
    },
    {
      "category": "Factory demand",
      "seriesCount": 8,
      "obs": 48,
      "medianMapePct": 3.3
    },
    {
      "category": "Interest rates",
      "seriesCount": 1,
      "obs": 6,
      "medianMapePct": 3.4
    },
    {
      "category": "Energy security",
      "seriesCount": 1,
      "obs": 6,
      "medianMapePct": 5.6
    },
    {
      "category": "Tariff Signals",
      "seriesCount": 58,
      "obs": 348,
      "medianMapePct": 8.7
    },
    {
      "category": "Trade flows",
      "seriesCount": 8,
      "obs": 48,
      "medianMapePct": 10.4
    },
    {
      "category": "Fuels and spot energy",
      "seriesCount": 6,
      "obs": 34,
      "medianMapePct": 20.1
    }
  ],
  "mostAccurate": [
    {
      "slug": "manufacturing-average-weekly-hours",
      "title": "Manufacturing Average Weekly Hours",
      "category": "Factory demand",
      "mapePct": 0.2,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "ppi-paints-and-allied-products",
      "title": "PPI: Paints and Allied Products",
      "category": "Materials and producer prices",
      "mapePct": 0.2,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "manufacturing-average-hourly-earnings-all-employees",
      "title": "Manufacturing Average Hourly Earnings, All Employees",
      "category": "Labor",
      "mapePct": 0.3,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "capacity-utilization-total-industry",
      "title": "Capacity Utilization, Total Industry",
      "category": "Factory activity",
      "mapePct": 0.3,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "manufacturing-employment",
      "title": "Manufacturing Employment",
      "category": "Labor",
      "mapePct": 0.3,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "ppi-machinery-and-equipment",
      "title": "PPI: Machinery and Equipment",
      "category": "Materials and producer prices",
      "mapePct": 0.5,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "ppi-iron-and-steel-castings",
      "title": "PPI: Iron and Steel Castings",
      "category": "Materials and producer prices",
      "mapePct": 0.5,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "capacity-utilization-manufacturing",
      "title": "Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing",
      "category": "Factory activity",
      "mapePct": 0.7,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": null
    }
  ],
  "leastAccurate": [
    {
      "slug": "on-highway-diesel-retail",
      "title": "On-Highway Diesel, Retail",
      "category": "Fuels and spot energy",
      "mapePct": 30.7,
      "obs": 5,
      "sourceHref": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "henry-hub-natural-gas-spot",
      "title": "Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot",
      "category": "Fuels and spot energy",
      "mapePct": 26.3,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "import-volume-steel-pipe-tube",
      "title": "Steel pipe and tube Import Customs Value",
      "category": "Tariff Signals",
      "mapePct": 21.3,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": "/tariffs/steel-pipe-tube"
    },
    {
      "slug": "copper-imports",
      "title": "Copper Imports",
      "category": "Trade flows",
      "mapePct": 20.3,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "wti-crude-oil-spot",
      "title": "WTI Crude Oil Spot",
      "category": "Fuels and spot energy",
      "mapePct": 20.1,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "mont-belvieu-propane-spot",
      "title": "Mont Belvieu Propane Spot",
      "category": "Fuels and spot energy",
      "mapePct": 19.7,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "import-volume-foundry-metallurgy",
      "title": "Foundry and rolling equipment Import Customs Value",
      "category": "Tariff Signals",
      "mapePct": 19.4,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": "/tariffs/foundry-metallurgy"
    },
    {
      "slug": "import-volume-steel-structures",
      "title": "Fabricated structural steel Import Customs Value",
      "category": "Tariff Signals",
      "mapePct": 19.4,
      "obs": 6,
      "sourceHref": "/tariffs/steel-structures"
    }
  ],
  "methodology": {
    "name": "Forecast Accuracy Ledger: How Our Manufacturing Forecasts Have Actually Done",
    "slug": "us-manufacturing-forecast-accuracy",
    "version": "1.0.0",
    "url": "https://www.mfgcalcs.com/signals/forecast-accuracy",
    "formula": "Every published forecast carries a walk-forward backtest: one-step-ahead predictions made on data the model had not seen, versus the actual that arrived. This ledger aggregates all of those points: observation-level absolute percentage error (median, mean, 90th percentile); the share of predictions within 5% and 10% of actual; the directional hit rate (did the model call the sign of the next move); the median error by category; and the most- and least-accurate series by backtest error.",
    "unit": "absolute percentage error; hit rates in percent.",
    "scope": "ONE-STEP-AHEAD out-of-sample accuracy — the model's short-horizon calibration. The published forecasts run six months out and error compounds with horizon, so read this as how well the next step is called, not the six-month number.",
    "source": "MFG Calcs deterministic forecaster (damped Holt-Winters) walk-forward backtests over U.S. federal open data and derived tariff Signals.",
    "provenance": "Self-graded from the same committed backtests the per-forecast pages render. Redistributable.",
    "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "attribution": "MFG Calcs (mfgcalcs.com)",
    "asOf": "2026-07"
  }
}