{ "version": "1.0.0", "horizon": 6, "minObs": 12, "maxMapePct": 35, "asOf": "2026-08", "publishedCount": 113, "heldBackCount": 9, "rows": [ { "key": "spot.henryHub", "slug": "henry-hub-natural-gas-spot", "title": "Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot", "unit": "USD/MMBtu", "category": "Fuels and spot energy", "source": "EIA daily spot prices", "sourceUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/data.php", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 63, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 2.8873, "latestValueLabel": "$2.89", "cadence": "daily", "anchorNote": "This series publishes daily. The model averages those daily readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest daily reading, $2.70 on 2026-08-25, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-25", "excludedValueLabel": "$2.70", "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 4.5593, "endValueLabel": "$4.56", "changePct": 57.9, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 26.3, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 2.1446051204542393 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 2.6325332385135285 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 2.6325332385135285 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 2.707283034093046 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 2.707283034093046 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 2.7958822834769403 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "naturalGas", "slug": "industrial-natural-gas-price", "title": "Industrial Natural Gas Price", "unit": "USD/Mcf", "category": "Energy prices", "source": "EIA Natural Gas Navigator, industrial price", "sourceUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 64, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 4.37, "latestValueLabel": "$4.37", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 6.5186, "endValueLabel": "$6.52", "changePct": 49.2, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 12.7, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 1.2543432864133655 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 1.3732720383092625 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 1.457613539892475 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 1.571998071480663 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 1.835399079174156 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 2.238047202476805 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "trade.ironSteel", "slug": "iron-and-steel-imports", "title": "Iron and Steel Imports", "unit": "USD/month", "category": "Trade flows", "source": "Census International Trade", "sourceUrl": "https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 62, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 2212093058, "latestValueLabel": "$2.21B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1520399829.3634, "endValueLabel": "$1.52B", "changePct": -31.3, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 17.8, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 350250807.1011772 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 377614355.24771833 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 436828529.0211158 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 473166769.7023301 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 521425243.30506873 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 640697368.506906 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.steel-flat-rolled", "slug": "import-volume-steel-flat-rolled", "title": "Steel flat-rolled products Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/steel-flat-rolled", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 406481750, "latestValueLabel": "$406.5M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 286306570.4193, "endValueLabel": "$286.3M", "changePct": -29.6, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 16.1, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 115788644.5792973 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 138619750.1485324 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 164907364.81638062 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 182797759.36033654 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 192589048.94067323 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 226626489.21957624 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.stainless-steel", "slug": "import-volume-stainless-steel", "title": "Stainless steel mill products Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/stainless-steel", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 152166179, "latestValueLabel": "$152.2M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 112225699.6203, "endValueLabel": "$112.2M", "changePct": -26.2, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 10.3, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 59854696.93257284 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 59854696.93257284 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 59854696.93257284 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 64510110.97428626 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 64790557.04137784 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 67956631.53144419 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "fuels.diesel", "slug": "on-highway-diesel-retail", "title": "On-Highway Diesel, Retail", "unit": "USD/gal", "category": "Fuels and spot energy", "source": "EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, weekly", "sourceUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 35, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 4.9553, "latestValueLabel": "$4.96", "cadence": "weekly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes weekly. The model averages those weekly readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest weekly reading, $5.60 on 2026-08-31, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-31", "excludedValueLabel": "$5.60", "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 3.9007, "endValueLabel": "$3.90", "changePct": -21.3, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 30.7, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.492988114416804 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.5476227550981743 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.5932327426421828 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.6205599990437527 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.6474338906582076 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.6856397559280194 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.wire-cable", "slug": "import-volume-wire-cable", "title": "Insulated wire and cable Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/wire-cable", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 3577665373, "latestValueLabel": "$3.58B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 2857957611.2138, "endValueLabel": "$2.86B", "changePct": -20.1, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 6.2, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 401930472.5292373 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 427080127.0816827 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 468537245.6707115 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 485232289.0287881 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 501926406.4554 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 541811426.7203598 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.specialty-metals", "slug": "import-volume-specialty-metals", "title": "Titanium and tungsten Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/specialty-metals", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 159316338, "latestValueLabel": "$159.3M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 127626480.8975, "endValueLabel": "$127.6M", "changePct": -19.9, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 13.6, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 15057588.460460693 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 16507870.059843257 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 16507870.059843257 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 16507870.059843257 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 16507870.059843257 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 18918884.579649374 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.semiconductor-equipment", "slug": "import-volume-semiconductor-equipment", "title": "Semiconductor and display equipment Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/semiconductor-equipment", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1239186915, "latestValueLabel": "$1.24B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1007558980.8657, "endValueLabel": "$1.01B", "changePct": -18.7, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 12.6, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 356667981.61229074 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 373827757.5323515 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 399518163.1928587 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 399518163.1928587 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 399518163.1928587 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 399518163.1928587 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.glass-fiber", "slug": "import-volume-glass-fiber", "title": "Glass fiber and reinforcements Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/glass-fiber", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 136402323, "latestValueLabel": "$136.4M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 160966282.6728, "endValueLabel": "$161M", "changePct": 18, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 6.6, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 12471165.625754923 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 17953635.122592956 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 22327573.35153246 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 25004555.42441447 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 30459010.80552402 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 39220060.5316385 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": false }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.steel-long-products", "slug": "import-volume-steel-long-products", "title": "Steel bar, rod, and wire Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/steel-long-products", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 277026298, "latestValueLabel": "$277M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 228324891.8448, "endValueLabel": "$228.3M", "changePct": -17.6, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 9.5, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 77131556.0765112 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 96581101.48903716 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 104783352.08426791 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 104783352.08426791 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 104783352.08426791 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 104783352.08426791 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.cutting-tools", "slug": "import-volume-cutting-tools", "title": "Cutting tools and inserts Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/cutting-tools", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 479464418, "latestValueLabel": "$479.5M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 396478881.9037, "endValueLabel": "$396.5M", "changePct": -17.3, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 8.4, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 43596734.566251695 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 47336714.78263235 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 47336714.78263235 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 47336714.78263235 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 47336714.78263235 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 47336714.78263235 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "trade.plastics", "slug": "plastics-imports", "title": "Plastics Imports", "unit": "USD/month", "category": "Trade flows", "source": "Census International Trade", "sourceUrl": "https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 62, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 6381293971, "latestValueLabel": "$6.38B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 5302989287.9541, "endValueLabel": "$5.30B", "changePct": -16.9, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 6.6, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 533621759.09515953 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 589973759.2094336 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 620343678.206523 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 664876127.4776335 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 664876127.4776335 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 712167309.2279882 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.machine-tools-cutting", "slug": "import-volume-machine-tools-cutting", "title": "Metal-cutting machine tools Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/machine-tools-cutting", "obs": 78, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 366020006, "latestValueLabel": "$366M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 422903609.3107, "endValueLabel": "$422.9M", "changePct": 15.5, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 8.3, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 91530369.02361631 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 101180157.34774286 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 101180157.34774286 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 101180157.34774286 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 101180157.34774286 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 106761170.46466666 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "trade.aluminum", "slug": "aluminum-imports", "title": "Aluminum Imports", "unit": "USD/month", "category": "Trade flows", "source": "Census International Trade", "sourceUrl": "https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 62, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 3003726786, "latestValueLabel": "$3.00B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 2564306592.1001, "endValueLabel": "$2.56B", "changePct": -14.6, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 18, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 482098752.5878866 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 541699522.8577614 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 589162387.5270443 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 589162387.5270443 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 589162387.5270443 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 600459864.9692707 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.switchgear-connectors", "slug": "import-volume-switchgear-connectors", "title": "Switchgear, connectors, and controls Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/switchgear-connectors", "obs": 78, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 4417317986, "latestValueLabel": "$4.42B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 3780326891.1505, "endValueLabel": "$3.78B", "changePct": -14.4, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 9.7, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 230360000.2067709 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 267327532.23273945 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 288030890.738791 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 288030890.738791 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 304127148.26284695 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 381685142.3176508 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.engines", "slug": "import-volume-engines", "title": "Internal combustion engines Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/engines", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 2540308412, "latestValueLabel": "$2.54B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 2173934128.0412, "endValueLabel": "$2.17B", "changePct": -14.4, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 3.1, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 181476329.24837017 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 197640938.52896047 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 205181134.07615852 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 210975300.45031786 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 230106038.28822947 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 247002532.9368682 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "globalMaterials.ironOre", "slug": "iron-ore-price", "title": "Iron Ore Price", "unit": "USD/tonne", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "IMF global price via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIORECRUSDM", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 415, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 101.5957, "latestValueLabel": "$102", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 115.9975, "endValueLabel": "$116", "changePct": 14.2, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 6.9, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 8.723837807131531 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 13.033618599473087 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 14.431837945064188 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 14.431837945064188 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 14.431837945064188 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 16.326093403904608 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "spr.crude", "slug": "strategic-petroleum-reserve-crude-stocks", "title": "Strategic Petroleum Reserve Crude Stocks", "unit": "thousand barrels", "category": "Energy security", "source": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report", "sourceUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/spr/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 207, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 311979.8, "latestValueLabel": "312.0M bbl", "cadence": "weekly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes weekly. The model averages those weekly readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest weekly reading, 289.7M bbl on 2026-08-21, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-21", "excludedValueLabel": "289.7M bbl", "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 267840.2267, "endValueLabel": "267.8M bbl", "changePct": -14.1, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 5.6, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 2828.1846179246204 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 4239.408815673552 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 6859.158591812127 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 7429.036418795236 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 7688.404185346793 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 9472.662692778511 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.aluminum-articles", "slug": "import-volume-aluminum-articles", "title": "Aluminum articles Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/aluminum-articles", "obs": 78, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 169181134, "latestValueLabel": "$169.2M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 192778110.87, "endValueLabel": "$192.8M", "changePct": 13.9, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 8.6, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 21965971.245131582 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 27022907.975544125 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 30840213.18085286 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 36742880.22948071 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 41627251.55946964 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 48053835.04134849 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.measuring-instruments", "slug": "import-volume-measuring-instruments", "title": "Measuring and inspection instruments Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/measuring-instruments", "obs": 78, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1080572048, "latestValueLabel": "$1.08B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 933577632.7348, "endValueLabel": "$933.6M", "changePct": -13.6, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 10.4, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 94709451.59086478 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 103843242.81228101 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 109624566.3502568 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 113466392.2018975 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 126976975.56735277 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 156531734.8581127 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.carbon-insulators", "slug": "import-volume-carbon-insulators", "title": "Carbon products and insulators Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/carbon-insulators", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 130171058, "latestValueLabel": "$130.2M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 147839917.8121, "endValueLabel": "$147.8M", "changePct": 13.6, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 7, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 12017200.107230052 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 14035570.298417643 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 14035570.298417643 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 17523468.30349338 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 20880039.332152635 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 20961395.17111641 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "trade.rubber", "slug": "rubber-imports", "title": "Rubber Imports", "unit": "USD/month", "category": "Trade flows", "source": "Census International Trade", "sourceUrl": "https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 62, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 2870487715, "latestValueLabel": "$2.87B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 2484972377.7835, "endValueLabel": "$2.48B", "changePct": -13.4, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 2.8, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 318447260.92195415 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 474227321.4703789 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 474227321.4703789 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 546650188.7209187 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 546650188.7209187 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 607863463.089313 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.rubber-products", "slug": "import-volume-rubber-products", "title": "Rubber materials and products Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/rubber-products", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 855755012, "latestValueLabel": "$855.8M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 744997478.3392, "endValueLabel": "$745M", "changePct": -12.9, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 5.5, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 52523796.94046104 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 68321816.57040024 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 70802287.99935806 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 70802287.99935806 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 70802287.99935806 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 70802287.99935806 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.heat-exchange", "slug": "import-volume-heat-exchange", "title": "Heat exchange and process heating Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/heat-exchange", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1038796320, "latestValueLabel": "$1.04B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1171485027.409, "endValueLabel": "$1.17B", "changePct": 12.8, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 10.8, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 123544116.83051598 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 123544116.83051598 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 123544116.83051598 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 123544116.83051598 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 123544116.83051598 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 149717173.7774222 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.plastic-semis", "slug": "import-volume-plastic-semis", "title": "Plastic semi-finished products Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/plastic-semis", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1273747413, "latestValueLabel": "$1.27B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1113460397.7967, "endValueLabel": "$1.11B", "changePct": -12.6, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 5.3, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 82603707.35973954 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 99971161.17314816 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 121172963.86147833 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 121888893.15158892 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 136326759.6209948 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 154390987.19506502 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.turbines", "slug": "import-volume-turbines", "title": "Turbines and fluid-power drives Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/turbines", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 4046318418, "latestValueLabel": "$4.05B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 4553893436.9822, "endValueLabel": "$4.55B", "changePct": 12.5, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 10.5, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 359402989.1288681 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 461077738.88789797 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 561745190.9637618 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 604352810.7505736 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 604352810.7505736 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 652930323.2062607 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.pumps", "slug": "import-volume-pumps", "title": "Pumps for liquids Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/pumps", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1152610967, "latestValueLabel": "$1.15B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1021242197.1643, "endValueLabel": "$1.02B", "changePct": -11.4, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 6.1, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 64947164.340500474 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 70847868.31363487 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 70847868.31363487 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 71151108.30771339 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 71151108.30771339 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 80765024.49243283 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "spot.wti", "slug": "wti-crude-oil-spot", "title": "WTI Crude Oil Spot", "unit": "USD/bbl", "category": "Fuels and spot energy", "source": "EIA daily spot prices", "sourceUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.php", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 63, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 80.4564, "latestValueLabel": "$80.46", "cadence": "daily", "anchorNote": "This series publishes daily. The model averages those daily readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest daily reading, $83.90 on 2026-08-25, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-25", "excludedValueLabel": "$83.90", "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 71.5678, "endValueLabel": "$71.57", "changePct": -11, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 20.1, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 6.521599422254965 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 7.076513480984737 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 9.266906742087066 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 10.075585070446685 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 10.075585070446685 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 19.710861180687203 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "signal.tariff-bill", "slug": "manufacturing-tariff-bill", "title": "Manufacturing Calculated-Duty Estimate", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (calculated duties, constant panel)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/signals/tariff-bill", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 3747031554, "latestValueLabel": "$3.75B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 3363472073.3213, "endValueLabel": "$3.36B", "changePct": -10.2, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 10.8, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 850346573.1450673 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 1379711254.3950255 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 1892980711.5002074 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 2494050099.650367 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 2559353800.2469883 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 3047356063.334547 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.compressors-fans", "slug": "import-volume-compressors-fans", "title": "Compressors and fans Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/compressors-fans", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1390777592, "latestValueLabel": "$1.39B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1532245054.5232, "endValueLabel": "$1.53B", "changePct": 10.2, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 7.8, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 152608664.85985732 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 190647685.17772937 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 306719466.4041767 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 306719466.4041767 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 348983476.3257096 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 423360656.9409478 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "demand.housingStarts", "slug": "housing-starts", "title": "Housing Starts", "unit": "thousands (SAAR)", "category": "Factory demand", "source": "U.S. Census Bureau and HUD via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 811, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 1239, "latestValueLabel": "1,239", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1363.8145, "endValueLabel": "1,364", "changePct": 10.1, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 8.2, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 89.54127352555793 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 89.54127352555793 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 93.71706165054775 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 95.36352019056972 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 121.5949329195198 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 121.5949329195198 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "demand.jobOpenings", "slug": "manufacturing-job-openings", "title": "Manufacturing Job Openings", "unit": "thousands", "category": "Factory demand", "source": "BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS3000JOL", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 308, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 580, "latestValueLabel": "580", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 522.0454, "endValueLabel": "522.0", "changePct": -10, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 12.6, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 90.04989677388949 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 105.53054523567101 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 115.10596581000942 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 126.75504662739513 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 142.56930042267615 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 173.0156600296084 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.coatings-paints", "slug": "import-volume-coatings-paints", "title": "Paints, coatings, and finishes Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/coatings-paints", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 105946480, "latestValueLabel": "$105.9M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 95666778.2038, "endValueLabel": "$95.7M", "changePct": -9.7, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 7.4, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 13330251.796333 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 14892494.635248214 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 16119774.862883523 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 16925544.049692154 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 16925544.049692154 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 16925544.049692154 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.abrasives", "slug": "import-volume-abrasives", "title": "Abrasives and grinding wheels Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/abrasives", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 91278279, "latestValueLabel": "$91.3M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 82853984.1067, "endValueLabel": "$82.9M", "changePct": -9.2, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 5, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 11623972.120890811 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 12243802.909148604 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 13064222.274156287 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 13496460.218858406 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 14075512.289822072 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 14973788.222287044 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "globalMaterials.aluminum", "slug": "global-aluminum-price", "title": "Global Aluminum Price", "unit": "USD/tonne", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "IMF global price via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PALUMUSDM", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 415, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 3158.265, "latestValueLabel": "$3,158", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 3444.3325, "endValueLabel": "$3,444", "changePct": 9.1, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 6.6, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 168.6623562374566 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 206.7666243050603 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 255.56930119092112 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 257.6837747062823 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 285.67032563262546 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 350.94755357763825 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "ppi.resins", "slug": "ppi-plastic-resins-and-materials", "title": "PPI: Plastic Resins and Materials", "unit": "index (1982=100)", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "BLS Producer Price Index", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU066", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 292.875, "latestValueLabel": "292.88", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 319.5736, "endValueLabel": "319.57", "changePct": 9.1, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 5.9, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 6.428970095539626 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 8.768476916656738 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 11.4051502301933 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 13.903139420728849 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 14.76756302653672 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 15.653332360384809 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.steel-pipe-tube", "slug": "import-volume-steel-pipe-tube", "title": "Steel pipe and tube Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/steel-pipe-tube", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 521449486, "latestValueLabel": "$521.4M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 567850808.4595, "endValueLabel": "$567.9M", "changePct": 8.9, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 21.3, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 106396853.65986061 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 114329912.40897834 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 133331720.73450518 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 148210990.63788545 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 166016107.68630683 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 201757225.67896962 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.gaskets-seals", "slug": "import-volume-gaskets-seals", "title": "Gaskets and mechanical seals Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/gaskets-seals", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 81318398, "latestValueLabel": "$81.3M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 74325281.2395, "endValueLabel": "$74.3M", "changePct": -8.6, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 5.2, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 5515244.385153487 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 5515244.385153487 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 5515244.385153487 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 5660606.735234201 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 5660606.735234201 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 6432358.151580781 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "rates.treasury10y", "slug": "10-year-treasury-yield", "title": "10-Year Treasury Yield", "unit": "%", "category": "Interest rates", "source": "Federal Reserve via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 61, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 4.5995, "latestValueLabel": "4.60%", "cadence": "daily", "anchorNote": "This series publishes daily. The model averages those daily readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest daily reading, 4.75% on 2026-08-31, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-31", "excludedValueLabel": "4.75%", "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 4.2139, "endValueLabel": "4.21%", "changePct": -8.4, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 3.4, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.5894974218412812 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.6346200743485664 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.6346200743485664 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.6346200743485664 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.6346200743485664 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.6346200743485664 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "ppi.ironSteel", "slug": "ppi-iron-and-steel", "title": "PPI: Iron and Steel", "unit": "index (1982=100)", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "BLS Producer Price Index", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU101", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 374.1, "latestValueLabel": "374.10", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 405.7052, "endValueLabel": "405.71", "changePct": 8.4, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 2, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 14.352691728774573 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 26.67688929353926 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 26.85296848946581 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 35.206350601226404 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 37.37903223976747 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 43.09432356643845 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.transformers-power", "slug": "import-volume-transformers-power", "title": "Transformers and power supplies Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/transformers-power", "obs": 78, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 3187307356, "latestValueLabel": "$3.19B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 2924866463.4273, "endValueLabel": "$2.92B", "changePct": -8.2, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 8.7, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 213167386.19593716 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 213167386.19593716 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 213167386.19593716 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 215621038.46475267 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 215621038.46475267 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 283062469.956759 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.welding-equipment", "slug": "import-volume-welding-equipment", "title": "Welding equipment Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/welding-equipment", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 157291705, "latestValueLabel": "$157.3M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 144488785.0425, "endValueLabel": "$144.5M", "changePct": -8.1, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 18.7, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 24833354.441288024 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 28431490.77293527 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 28488960.402767062 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 28488960.402767062 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 28653143.66904378 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 31981933.42588964 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.steel-springs-chain", "slug": "import-volume-steel-springs-chain", "title": "Springs, chain, and wire mesh Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/steel-springs-chain", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 180526467, "latestValueLabel": "$180.5M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 165912994.1812, "endValueLabel": "$165.9M", "changePct": -8.1, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 4.2, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 14346937.1779235 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 14439768.562312007 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 18629621.28301215 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 21189798.678558707 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 30880588.961122006 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 34240829.602254 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.molds-dies", "slug": "import-volume-molds-dies", "title": "Molds and die sets Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/molds-dies", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 175889912, "latestValueLabel": "$175.9M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 162043670.097, "endValueLabel": "$162M", "changePct": -7.9, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 5.9, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 35346947.83619347 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 36234474.60380942 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 41856010.906479955 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 41856010.906479955 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 49306738.26066828 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 49306738.26066828 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "spot.brent", "slug": "brent-crude-oil-spot", "title": "Brent Crude Oil Spot", "unit": "USD/bbl", "category": "Fuels and spot energy", "source": "EIA daily spot prices", "sourceUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.php", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 62, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 83.7587, "latestValueLabel": "$83.76", "cadence": "daily", "anchorNote": "This series publishes daily. The model averages those daily readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest daily reading, $88.24 on 2026-08-25, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-25", "excludedValueLabel": "$88.24", "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 77.2355, "endValueLabel": "$77.24", "changePct": -7.8, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 15.4, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 21.908030076866126 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 23.418964294610703 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 23.418964294610703 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 23.418964294610703 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 23.418964294610703 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 25.036392682412682 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.power-transmission", "slug": "import-volume-power-transmission", "title": "Gears and power transmission Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/power-transmission", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 970841099, "latestValueLabel": "$970.8M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 897395019.3065, "endValueLabel": "$897.4M", "changePct": -7.6, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 4.8, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 57665122.5452503 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 59107263.30391526 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 60695591.63658154 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 61480074.49254906 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 61480074.49254906 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 64184070.04491413 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "ppi.aluminum", "slug": "ppi-aluminum-mill-shapes", "title": "PPI: Aluminum Mill Shapes", "unit": "index (1982=100)", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "BLS Producer Price Index", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU1025", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 407.62, "latestValueLabel": "407.62", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 437.7891, "endValueLabel": "437.79", "changePct": 7.4, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 1.8, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 8.659853415943758 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 12.681099544986125 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 17.8926040822505 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 24.265324558681755 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 32.06431138452547 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 47.04484511924193 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "ppi.copper", "slug": "ppi-copper-and-brass-mill-shapes", "title": "PPI: Copper and Brass Mill Shapes", "unit": "index (1982=100)", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "BLS Producer Price Index", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU1022", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 542.853, "latestValueLabel": "542.85", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 581.7134, "endValueLabel": "581.71", "changePct": 7.2, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 3.3, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 25.51069885124315 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 37.7021715881998 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 51.19600170838277 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 71.71528990076752 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 89.71148805232957 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 138.60593284626538 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.plastics-rubber-machinery", "slug": "import-volume-plastics-rubber-machinery", "title": "Plastics and rubber machinery Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/plastics-rubber-machinery", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 233730317, "latestValueLabel": "$233.7M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 250605729.21, "endValueLabel": "$250.6M", "changePct": 7.2, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 17, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 48874827.08087197 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 48874827.08087197 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 50495006.56769359 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 53575370.700904846 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 53575370.700904846 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 69913721.65820682 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.steel-structures", "slug": "import-volume-steel-structures", "title": "Fabricated structural steel Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/steel-structures", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 546675647, "latestValueLabel": "$546.7M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 510344610.4546, "endValueLabel": "$510.3M", "changePct": -6.6, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 19.4, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 195714632.54139793 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 196973317.52244294 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 210729410.00464833 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 216765034.84595025 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 216993904.24045253 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 238099990.38610244 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.bearings", "slug": "import-volume-bearings", "title": "Bearings Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/bearings", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 288203604, "latestValueLabel": "$288.2M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 269749874.9916, "endValueLabel": "$269.7M", "changePct": -6.4, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 9.6, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 21110604.867158055 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 21110604.867158055 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 21110604.867158055 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 21110604.867158055 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 21110604.867158055 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 21110604.867158055 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.tanks-vessels", "slug": "import-volume-tanks-vessels", "title": "Tanks, vessels, and gas cylinders Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/tanks-vessels", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 80908327, "latestValueLabel": "$80.9M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 85683891.128, "endValueLabel": "$85.7M", "changePct": 5.9, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 13.5, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 36162757.04335648 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 39629106.27647674 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 41359843.90949479 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 43399291.607507795 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 46769465.15395817 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 48429240.16438046 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.machine-tools-forming", "slug": "import-volume-machine-tools-forming", "title": "Metal-forming machine tools Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/machine-tools-forming", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 167828208, "latestValueLabel": "$167.8M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 158135398.8741, "endValueLabel": "$158.1M", "changePct": -5.8, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 15, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 36261970.23472756 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 42866061.42197657 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 42866061.42197657 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 42866061.42197657 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 42866061.42197657 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 50974556.30096114 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "trade.electrical", "slug": "electrical-machinery-and-equipment-imports", "title": "Electrical Machinery and Equipment Imports", "unit": "USD/month", "category": "Trade flows", "source": "Census International Trade", "sourceUrl": "https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 62, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 55865600048, "latestValueLabel": "$55.87B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 52815010371.5665, "endValueLabel": "$52.82B", "changePct": -5.5, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 9, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 3933651743.9892426 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 4380351482.694702 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 4380351482.694702 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 4380351482.694702 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 4380351482.694702 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 4380351482.694702 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.aluminum-semis", "slug": "import-volume-aluminum-semis", "title": "Aluminum semi-finished products Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/aluminum-semis", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1016233393, "latestValueLabel": "$1.02B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 960703545.2158, "endValueLabel": "$960.7M", "changePct": -5.5, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 14.2, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 74098856.64297962 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 95244066.32629049 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 99178494.13325763 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 100243775.7932769 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 100243775.7932769 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 114534642.97156501 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "ppi.paper", "slug": "ppi-paperboard-and-containers", "title": "PPI: Paperboard and Containers", "unit": "index (1982=100)", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "BLS Producer Price Index", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU0913", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 283.012, "latestValueLabel": "283.01", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 297.3206, "endValueLabel": "297.32", "changePct": 5.1, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 1.4, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 1.5757414521274313 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 2.570117036155665 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 3.3110200535433876 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 3.3110200535433876 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 3.825934498739599 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 5.615665352418404 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.industrial-robots", "slug": "import-volume-industrial-robots", "title": "Robots and automated machinery Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/industrial-robots", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1320197594, "latestValueLabel": "$1.32B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1386416431.5482, "endValueLabel": "$1.39B", "changePct": 5, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 12.4, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 116721725.7404406 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 163955116.08720875 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 163955116.08720875 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 187062046.7292056 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 187062046.7292056 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 187062046.7292056 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.copper-semis", "slug": "import-volume-copper-semis", "title": "Copper semi-finished products Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/copper-semis", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 376233988, "latestValueLabel": "$376.2M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 358620748.771, "endValueLabel": "$358.6M", "changePct": -4.7, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 10.4, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 149363724.483244 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 204032565.9323218 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 246751337.3461612 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 279234448.4643657 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 342624353.3474821 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 342624353.3474821 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "trade.machinery", "slug": "machinery-and-mechanical-appliances-imports", "title": "Machinery and Mechanical Appliances Imports", "unit": "USD/month", "category": "Trade flows", "source": "Census International Trade", "sourceUrl": "https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 62, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 78390028894, "latestValueLabel": "$78.39B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 74776531978.5215, "endValueLabel": "$74.78B", "changePct": -4.6, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 10.4, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 7221300351.243263 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 7221966018.909866 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 7805624101.765099 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 9377473262.965218 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 10028009115.96141 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 11052680618.169022 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "trade.copper", "slug": "copper-imports", "title": "Copper Imports", "unit": "USD/month", "category": "Trade flows", "source": "Census International Trade", "sourceUrl": "https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 62, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 2353905306, "latestValueLabel": "$2.35B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 2248017630.4259, "endValueLabel": "$2.25B", "changePct": -4.5, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 20.3, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 1328018434.570898 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 1382720490.2256665 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 1403341828.3605874 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 1403341828.3605874 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 1422920704.6523745 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 1589081890.7815447 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.technical-ceramics", "slug": "import-volume-technical-ceramics", "title": "Technical and refractory ceramics Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/technical-ceramics", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 133613124, "latestValueLabel": "$133.6M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 127658073.3926, "endValueLabel": "$127.7M", "changePct": -4.5, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 9.3, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 10838106.235610127 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 10838106.235610127 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 10838106.235610127 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 10838106.235610127 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 10838106.235610127 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 11326947.225679174 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "ppi.steel", "slug": "ppi-steel-mill-products", "title": "PPI: Steel Mill Products", "unit": "index (1982=100)", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "BLS Producer Price Index", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU1017", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 374.203, "latestValueLabel": "374.20", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 390.1098, "endValueLabel": "390.11", "changePct": 4.3, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 3.7, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 27.38304710884978 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 30.37634245135854 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 42.27513440230433 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 46.579935941782196 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 54.88458905450628 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 63.060182533074 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.industrial-furnaces", "slug": "import-volume-industrial-furnaces", "title": "Industrial furnaces and ovens Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/industrial-furnaces", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 95880643, "latestValueLabel": "$95.9M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 99885689.8534, "endValueLabel": "$99.9M", "changePct": 4.2, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 10.2, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 35256907.68530832 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 39357087.63996905 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 41399617.34192014 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 45369699.18048614 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 49245127.482604355 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 76593486.80352607 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "ppi.machinery", "slug": "ppi-machinery-and-equipment", "title": "PPI: Machinery and Equipment", "unit": "index (1982=100)", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "BLS Producer Price Index", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU11", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 200.242, "latestValueLabel": "200.24", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 208.18, "endValueLabel": "208.18", "changePct": 4, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 0.5, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.9008413380353772 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 1.0958207692311532 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 1.4582194840008356 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 1.9013321427839571 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 2.3377636194465765 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 3.3238747678084053 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.semiconductors", "slug": "import-volume-semiconductors", "title": "Semiconductors and integrated circuits Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/semiconductors", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 5580404137, "latestValueLabel": "$5.58B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 5801686761.8286, "endValueLabel": "$5.8B", "changePct": 4, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 7.3, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 985745852.2064123 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 1377799480.9108572 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 1377799480.9108572 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 1567374284.1543598 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 1567374284.1543598 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 1567374284.1543598 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "electricity", "slug": "industrial-electricity-price", "title": "Industrial Electricity Price", "unit": "cents/kWh", "category": "Energy prices", "source": "EIA Electricity Data Browser, retail sales, industrial sector", "sourceUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 64, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 9.17, "latestValueLabel": "9.2¢", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 8.8167, "endValueLabel": "8.8¢", "changePct": -3.9, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 1.8, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.2728241671032343 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.2999400125121854 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.34647484393272077 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.4124726385110353 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.44647008185461345 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.5555013986507866 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.foundry-metallurgy", "slug": "import-volume-foundry-metallurgy", "title": "Foundry and rolling equipment Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/foundry-metallurgy", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 90829694, "latestValueLabel": "$90.8M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 87396764.6509, "endValueLabel": "$87.4M", "changePct": -3.8, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 19.4, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 50383436.51752409 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 52841141.54865402 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 58548482.25434998 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 66197634.63472003 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 66197634.63472003 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 72186643.40207109 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.plastics-resins", "slug": "import-volume-plastics-resins", "title": "Plastics in primary forms Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/plastics-resins", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1239813270, "latestValueLabel": "$1.24B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1193786021.0047, "endValueLabel": "$1.19B", "changePct": -3.7, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 11.2, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 107336090.39259982 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 124828731.03231752 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 146443050.90588558 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 188821592.15316772 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 205895013.37314343 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 245772927.6622486 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "fx.eur", "slug": "euro", "title": "Euro", "unit": "USD per EUR", "category": "Exchange rates", "source": "Federal Reserve H.10 via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSEU", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 61, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 1.1423, "latestValueLabel": "1.1423", "cadence": "daily", "anchorNote": "This series publishes daily. The model averages those daily readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest daily reading, 1.1598 on 2026-08-28, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-28", "excludedValueLabel": "1.1598", "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1.1834, "endValueLabel": "1.1834", "changePct": 3.6, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 1.7, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.06629946493359262 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.07229861962861905 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.07906213808457041 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.08126427043420814 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.08887335994462853 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.09940227436111093 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.powered-hand-tools", "slug": "import-volume-powered-hand-tools", "title": "Powered hand tools Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/powered-hand-tools", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 427896043, "latestValueLabel": "$427.9M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 443460662.9607, "endValueLabel": "$443.5M", "changePct": 3.6, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 12.7, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 122164319.52837217 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 141950541.63662696 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 162493306.32984734 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 162493306.32984734 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 218009699.33971727 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 311310060.0713184 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "fx.cny", "slug": "chinese-yuan", "title": "Chinese Yuan", "unit": "CNY per USD", "category": "Exchange rates", "source": "Federal Reserve H.10 via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCHUS", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 61, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 6.7757, "latestValueLabel": "6.7757", "cadence": "daily", "anchorNote": "This series publishes daily. The model averages those daily readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest daily reading, 6.7260 on 2026-08-28, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-28", "excludedValueLabel": "6.7260", "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 6.5519, "endValueLabel": "6.5519", "changePct": -3.3, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 2.2, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.2521770004347106 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.2753318139079166 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.2753318139079166 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.2753318139079166 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.2753318139079166 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.2753318139079166 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "fx.jpy", "slug": "japanese-yen", "title": "Japanese Yen", "unit": "JPY per USD", "category": "Exchange rates", "source": "Federal Reserve H.10 via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXJPUS", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 61, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 162.3295, "latestValueLabel": "162.3295", "cadence": "daily", "anchorNote": "This series publishes daily. The model averages those daily readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest daily reading, 159.9700 on 2026-08-28, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-28", "excludedValueLabel": "159.9700", "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 167.6395, "endValueLabel": "167.6395", "changePct": 3.3, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 2, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 21.37280688270434 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 22.554727740088765 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 23.305175087986328 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 23.305175087986328 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 23.504917078001057 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 26.406572684827296 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "electricityCommercial", "slug": "commercial-electricity-price", "title": "Commercial Electricity Price", "unit": "cents/kWh", "category": "Energy prices", "source": "EIA Electricity Data Browser, retail sales, commercial sector", "sourceUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 64, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 14.19, "latestValueLabel": "14.2¢", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 13.7473, "endValueLabel": "13.7¢", "changePct": -3.1, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 2.3, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.5614459835518684 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.5769684716581853 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.5871412384066765 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.6342499728628059 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.6342499728628059 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.7760921232789553 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "ppi.chemicals", "slug": "ppi-industrial-chemicals", "title": "PPI: Industrial Chemicals", "unit": "index (1982=100)", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "BLS Producer Price Index", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU061", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 334.202, "latestValueLabel": "334.20", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 344.4357, "endValueLabel": "344.44", "changePct": 3.1, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 4.2, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 6.967505272395613 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 10.702014147978673 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 10.755314190873605 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 10.755314190873605 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 10.78266047431731 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 14.748337536929398 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.valves", "slug": "import-volume-valves", "title": "Valves and fluid controls Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/valves", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1661390912, "latestValueLabel": "$1.66B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1610476690.2684, "endValueLabel": "$1.61B", "changePct": -3.1, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 6.1, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 131959712.08080816 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 137316211.29438806 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 147580440.22545385 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 167374399.60169148 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 167374399.60169148 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 167374399.60169148 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "globalMaterials.copper", "slug": "global-copper-price", "title": "Global Copper Price", "unit": "USD/tonne", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "IMF global price via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCOPPUSDM", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 415, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 13542.8209, "latestValueLabel": "$13,543", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 13949.3187, "endValueLabel": "$13,949", "changePct": 3, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 3.1, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 781.7348637501291 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 901.3358130578563 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 987.2381549540514 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 1028.3166161965637 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 1390.8896814093332 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 2056.056241200449 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "ppi.fasteners", "slug": "ppi-bolts-nuts-screws-rivets-and-washers", "title": "PPI: Bolts, Nuts, Screws, Rivets, and Washers", "unit": "index (1982=100)", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "BLS Producer Price Index", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU1081", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 329.461, "latestValueLabel": "329.46", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 319.665, "endValueLabel": "319.66", "changePct": -3, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 1.5, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 3.10279628085641 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 4.507105756184217 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 5.126774346682964 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 6.652012401819604 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 6.652012401819604 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 6.652012401819604 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "fuels.gasoline", "slug": "regular-gasoline-retail", "title": "Regular Gasoline, Retail", "unit": "USD/gal", "category": "Fuels and spot energy", "source": "EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, weekly", "sourceUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 35, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 3.9322, "latestValueLabel": "$3.93", "cadence": "weekly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes weekly. The model averages those weekly readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest weekly reading, $4.07 on 2026-08-31, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-31", "excludedValueLabel": "$4.07", "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 4.0476, "endValueLabel": "$4.05", "changePct": 2.9, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 12.7, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.14960891743879223 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.1956511630204476 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.2503909103739623 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.2503909103739623 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.2503909103739623 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.2503909103739623 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "demand.inventoriesToSales", "slug": "manufacturers-inventories-to-sales-ratio", "title": "Manufacturers' Inventories to Sales Ratio", "unit": "ratio", "category": "Factory demand", "source": "U.S. Census Bureau Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MNFCTRIRSA", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 414, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1.48, "latestValueLabel": "1.48", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1.5203, "endValueLabel": "1.52", "changePct": 2.7, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 4.4, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.01972050195369146 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.023421947703642365 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.02726798437936595 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.02726798437936595 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.029768261385122008 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.037024426016817324 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "fx.mxn", "slug": "mexican-peso", "title": "Mexican Peso", "unit": "MXN per USD", "category": "Exchange rates", "source": "Federal Reserve H.10 via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXMXUS", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 61, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 17.4557, "latestValueLabel": "17.4557", "cadence": "daily", "anchorNote": "This series publishes daily. The model averages those daily readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest daily reading, 17.0430 on 2026-08-28, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-28", "excludedValueLabel": "17.0430", "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 17.8955, "endValueLabel": "17.8955", "changePct": 2.5, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 1.3, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.7276631806492162 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.9721325245185639 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 1.1432004147329984 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 1.3653733595542796 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 1.569874765319895 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 1.9903382323516503 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "laborManufacturing", "slug": "manufacturing-average-hourly-earnings-all-employees", "title": "Manufacturing Average Hourly Earnings, All Employees", "unit": "USD/hour", "category": "Labor", "source": "BLS Current Employment Statistics", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000008", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 30.35, "latestValueLabel": "$30.35", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 31.0864, "endValueLabel": "$31.09", "changePct": 2.4, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 0.3, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.11997195706892683 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.13633133032849543 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.16823617733398422 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.18974450841271207 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.1966272078628002 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.1966272078628002 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.filtering-separation", "slug": "import-volume-filtering-separation", "title": "Filtering and separation equipment Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/filtering-separation", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1309846402, "latestValueLabel": "$1.31B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1340589718.175, "endValueLabel": "$1.34B", "changePct": 2.3, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 8.2, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 81735577.70729494 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 91314986.74677014 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 102318761.79977679 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 129396889.89295435 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 129396889.89295435 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 150698556.90870643 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "spot.propane", "slug": "mont-belvieu-propane-spot", "title": "Mont Belvieu Propane Spot", "unit": "USD/gal", "category": "Fuels and spot energy", "source": "EIA daily spot prices", "sourceUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.php", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 63, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 0.7031, "latestValueLabel": "$0.70", "cadence": "daily", "anchorNote": "This series publishes daily. The model averages those daily readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest daily reading, $0.69 on 2026-08-25, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-25", "excludedValueLabel": "$0.69", "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 0.7175, "endValueLabel": "$0.72", "changePct": 2, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 19.7, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.16045613860898933 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.16398887658112749 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.16668191519347753 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.20254879862268083 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.22127257145355472 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.2300824375585152 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.lifting-handling", "slug": "import-volume-lifting-handling", "title": "Lifting and handling equipment Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/lifting-handling", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1154599453, "latestValueLabel": "$1.15B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1178099958.5313, "endValueLabel": "$1.18B", "changePct": 2, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 10.1, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 124950500.95391536 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 154466468.77721214 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 154710834.74009347 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 154710834.74009347 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 167700917.8395536 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 167700917.8395536 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.adhesives-sealants", "slug": "import-volume-adhesives-sealants", "title": "Adhesives and sealants Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/adhesives-sealants", "obs": 78, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 116048398, "latestValueLabel": "$116M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 113886032.3052, "endValueLabel": "$113.9M", "changePct": -1.9, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 9, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 11020784.9226228 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 13786402.452613145 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 15235377.834276706 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 15235377.834276706 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 19800804.798678502 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 19800804.798678502 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.electric-motors", "slug": "import-volume-electric-motors", "title": "Electric motors and generators Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/electric-motors", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 1600302751, "latestValueLabel": "$1.6B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1571639875.1717, "endValueLabel": "$1.57B", "changePct": -1.8, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 6.6, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 164712548.51886344 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 194923758.69444966 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 225768029.93892407 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 236555287.7893343 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 265513148.99136472 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 265513148.99136472 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.industrial-lighting", "slug": "import-volume-industrial-lighting", "title": "Lamps and LED lighting Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/industrial-lighting", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 179579404, "latestValueLabel": "$179.6M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 176272749.1512, "endValueLabel": "$176.3M", "changePct": -1.8, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 6.2, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 41570715.79786292 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 48926368.2401821 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 63797791.371545315 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 63797791.371545315 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 63797791.371545315 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 82708581.24240974 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "demand.vehicleSales", "slug": "light-vehicle-sales", "title": "Light Vehicle Sales", "unit": "million (SAAR)", "category": "Factory demand", "source": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ALTSALES", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 607, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 16.321, "latestValueLabel": "16.3", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 16.0478, "endValueLabel": "16.0", "changePct": -1.7, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 2.8, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 1.0286440130622214 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 1.1762821466588065 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 1.1762821466588065 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 1.1762821466588065 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 1.1762821466588065 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 1.8257249780285107 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "demand.truckTonnage", "slug": "truck-tonnage-index", "title": "Truck Tonnage Index", "unit": "index (2015=100)", "category": "Factory demand", "source": "U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TRUCKD11", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 318, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 113.3, "latestValueLabel": "113.30", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 115.226, "endValueLabel": "115.23", "changePct": 1.7, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 1.9, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 1.1439453859597677 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 1.206390366380802 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 1.3045020343345897 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 1.4316552049334348 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 1.4316552049334348 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 1.541528551805797 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.steel-fasteners", "slug": "import-volume-steel-fasteners", "title": "Steel fasteners Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/steel-fasteners", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 467790790, "latestValueLabel": "$467.8M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 459733276.1766, "endValueLabel": "$459.7M", "changePct": -1.7, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 2.8, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 42132505.109222054 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 53998437.885136604 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 59201423.09528649 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 73460555.86743665 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 76903547.4181534 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 101278430.68477881 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "demand.industrialProduction", "slug": "manufacturing-industrial-production", "title": "Manufacturing Industrial Production", "unit": "index (2017=100)", "category": "Factory demand", "source": "Federal Reserve G.17 via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 655, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 99.314, "latestValueLabel": "99.31", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 97.881, "endValueLabel": "97.88", "changePct": -1.4, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 1.5, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 1.3595732567512755 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 1.470429903117747 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 1.5848320437480226 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 1.5848320437480226 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 1.5966480648088606 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 1.782056962726415 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "workforce.overtimeHours", "slug": "manufacturing-overtime-hours", "title": "Manufacturing Overtime Hours", "unit": "hours/week", "category": "Labor", "source": "BLS Current Employment Statistics", "sourceUrl": "https://www.bls.gov/ces/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 4.1, "latestValueLabel": "4.1", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 4.1547, "endValueLabel": "4.2", "changePct": 1.3, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 2.5, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.12464409552724565 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.12464409552724565 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.1722516761542976 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.1722516761542976 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.1722516761542976 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.1722516761542976 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "workforce.quitsRate", "slug": "manufacturing-quits-rate", "title": "Manufacturing Quits Rate", "unit": "% of employment", "category": "Labor", "source": "BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey", "sourceUrl": "https://www.bls.gov/jlt/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 308, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 1.4, "latestValueLabel": "1.40%", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1.3862, "endValueLabel": "1.39%", "changePct": -1, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 7.6, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.1793331600380248 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.1793331600380248 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.1793331600380248 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.1793331600380248 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.1793331600380248 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.1793331600380248 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "ppi.industrialGases", "slug": "ppi-industrial-gases", "title": "PPI: Industrial Gases", "unit": "index (1982=100)", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "BLS Producer Price Index", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU0653", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 209.803, "latestValueLabel": "209.80", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 211.9727, "endValueLabel": "211.97", "changePct": 1, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 0.8, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 5.975667834791807 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 6.524633085426899 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 14.895937387859334 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 14.895937387859334 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 14.895937387859334 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 15.473241416652655 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.iron-steel-articles", "slug": "import-volume-iron-steel-articles", "title": "Iron and steel castings and articles Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/iron-steel-articles", "obs": 78, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 444595178, "latestValueLabel": "$444.6M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 440151428.0672, "endValueLabel": "$440.2M", "changePct": -1, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 8.6, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 138320743.1089393 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 149189987.44253647 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 156647288.55781364 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 156647288.55781364 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 165504049.6699406 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 196140975.3746711 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "trade.vehicles", "slug": "vehicles-imports", "title": "Vehicles Imports", "unit": "USD/month", "category": "Trade flows", "source": "Census International Trade", "sourceUrl": "https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 62, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 28647949596, "latestValueLabel": "$28.65B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 28868049427.3566, "endValueLabel": "$28.87B", "changePct": 0.8, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 6.1, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 3403215025.9059753 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 4136550318.5266266 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 4915842093.664295 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 5356389909.648869 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 5356389909.648869 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 6823774226.555344 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": false }, { "key": "demand.newOrders", "slug": "manufacturers-new-orders", "title": "Manufacturers' New Orders", "unit": "USD millions", "category": "Factory demand", "source": "U.S. Census Bureau M3 Survey via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AMTMNO", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 413, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 656547, "latestValueLabel": "$657B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 651067.0156, "endValueLabel": "$651B", "changePct": -0.8, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 3.3, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 11442.470674475422 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 13754.111983464565 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 14073.678147368599 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 18671.436506222468 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 20745.4865830529 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 31015.35361303226 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "ppi.lumber", "slug": "ppi-lumber-and-wood-products", "title": "PPI: Lumber and Wood Products", "unit": "index (1982=100)", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "BLS Producer Price Index", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU081", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 291.019, "latestValueLabel": "291.02", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 289.0915, "endValueLabel": "289.09", "changePct": -0.7, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 2.6, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 7.772237707804436 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 11.756401243940758 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 16.47372427900146 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 16.47372427900146 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 16.47372427900146 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 17.849589001124514 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "ppi.castings", "slug": "ppi-iron-and-steel-castings", "title": "PPI: Iron and Steel Castings", "unit": "index (1982=100)", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "BLS Producer Price Index", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU1015", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 296.269, "latestValueLabel": "296.27", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 298.1193, "endValueLabel": "298.12", "changePct": 0.6, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 0.5, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 3.582072212341359 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 4.783786823538549 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 5.545358463525702 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 6.6499587698179425 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 7.863972841949646 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 9.312029170818164 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.hand-tools", "slug": "import-volume-hand-tools", "title": "Hand tools Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/hand-tools", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 224271341, "latestValueLabel": "$224.3M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 225561539.8025, "endValueLabel": "$225.6M", "changePct": 0.6, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 7, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 24085433.67584768 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 29585033.60730073 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 29585033.60730073 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 35295197.05262193 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 44057725.077429086 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 47714108.91047126 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.passive-components", "slug": "import-volume-passive-components", "title": "Capacitors, resistors, and circuit boards Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/passive-components", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 514836915, "latestValueLabel": "$514.8M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 517746607.9456, "endValueLabel": "$517.7M", "changePct": 0.6, "direction": "rising", "mapePct": 6.9, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 81984061.53581655 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 84361762.13121808 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 86057004.80081725 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 86057004.80081725 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 86057004.80081725 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 89407660.73591387 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.packaging-machinery", "slug": "import-volume-packaging-machinery", "title": "Packaging and filling machinery Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/packaging-machinery", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 534715622, "latestValueLabel": "$534.7M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 531572137.8245, "endValueLabel": "$531.6M", "changePct": -0.6, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 6.6, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 53486978.77488124 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 71642170.51709032 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 71642170.51709032 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 71642170.51709032 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 71642170.51709032 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 85884660.08527601 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "demand.weeklyHours", "slug": "manufacturing-average-weekly-hours", "title": "Manufacturing Average Weekly Hours", "unit": "hours/week", "category": "Factory demand", "source": "BLS Current Employment Statistics via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHMAN", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 1051, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 41.7, "latestValueLabel": "41.7", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 41.4885, "endValueLabel": "41.5", "changePct": -0.5, "direction": "falling", "mapePct": 0.2, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.23623593283353728 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.25259724976035614 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.34960561921835875 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.48024412594870114 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.5153328029833091 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.5153328029833091 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "capacityUtilization.manufacturing", "slug": "capacity-utilization-manufacturing", "title": "Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing", "unit": "% of capacity", "category": "Factory activity", "source": "Federal Reserve G.17 via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MCUMFN", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 655, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 75.9621, "latestValueLabel": "75.96%", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 75.6805, "endValueLabel": "75.68%", "changePct": -0.4, "direction": "flat", "mapePct": 0.7, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 1.1307289841903554 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 1.2462964814921804 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 1.3386058790241862 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 1.3386058790241862 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 1.3386058790241862 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 1.3386058790241862 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.nickel-alloys", "slug": "import-volume-nickel-alloys", "title": "Nickel and nickel alloys Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/nickel-alloys", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 187699028, "latestValueLabel": "$187.7M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 186905270.7178, "endValueLabel": "$186.9M", "changePct": -0.4, "direction": "flat", "mapePct": 10, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 76827923.44548711 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 76827923.44548711 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 76827923.44548711 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 76827923.44548711 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 76827923.44548711 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 76827923.44548711 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "capacityUtilization.totalIndustry", "slug": "capacity-utilization-total-industry", "title": "Capacity Utilization, Total Industry", "unit": "% of capacity", "category": "Factory activity", "source": "Federal Reserve G.17 via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCU", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 715, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 76.2878, "latestValueLabel": "76.29%", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 76.0575, "endValueLabel": "76.06%", "changePct": -0.3, "direction": "flat", "mapePct": 0.3, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.5043273869276419 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.5302031504517544 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.6301943764573821 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.6996388306383494 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.6996388306383494 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.7579442101036875 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "workforce.hiresRate", "slug": "manufacturing-hires-rate", "title": "Manufacturing Hires Rate", "unit": "% of employment", "category": "Labor", "source": "BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey", "sourceUrl": "https://www.bls.gov/jlt/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 308, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 2.3, "latestValueLabel": "2.30%", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 2.2941, "endValueLabel": "2.29%", "changePct": -0.3, "direction": "flat", "mapePct": 3.4, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.18991415340339834 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.2282225312535222 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.2282225312535222 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.2282225312535222 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.2282225312535222 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.24093495887573413 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.optical-components", "slug": "import-volume-optical-components", "title": "Optical elements and lenses Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/optical-components", "obs": 150, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 424925302, "latestValueLabel": "$424.9M", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 426201502.6782, "endValueLabel": "$426.2M", "changePct": 0.3, "direction": "flat", "mapePct": 7, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 45986280.09405702 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 45986280.09405702 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 45986280.09405702 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 62770665.679261565 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 62770665.679261565 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 62770665.679261565 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "ppi.paints", "slug": "ppi-paints-and-allied-products", "title": "PPI: Paints and Allied Products", "unit": "index (1982=100)", "category": "Materials and producer prices", "source": "BLS Producer Price Index", "sourceUrl": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPU0623", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 422.953, "latestValueLabel": "422.95", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 423.6677, "endValueLabel": "423.67", "changePct": 0.2, "direction": "flat", "mapePct": 0.2, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 2.8407716471969593 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 4.140148496881466 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 4.140148496881466 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 4.140148496881466 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 5.324169220238673 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 5.701301678301093 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "workforce.employment", "slug": "manufacturing-employment", "title": "Manufacturing Employment", "unit": "thousands of employees", "category": "Labor", "source": "BLS Current Employment Statistics", "sourceUrl": "https://www.bls.gov/ces/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 439, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 12611, "latestValueLabel": "12,611", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 12635.6975, "endValueLabel": "12,636", "changePct": 0.2, "direction": "flat", "mapePct": 0.3, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 135.90928346994588 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 148.8484198183105 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 162.80130021090736 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 170.95070058342753 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 181.44916732394995 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 196.11841132822337 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "signal.import-volume.batteries", "slug": "import-volume-batteries", "title": "Batteries and storage cells Import Customs Value", "unit": "USD", "category": "Tariff Signals", "source": "USITC DataWeb (monthly import customs value)", "sourceUrl": "https://dataweb.usitc.gov/", "sourceHref": "/tariffs/batteries", "obs": 42, "latestPeriod": "2026-06", "latestValue": 2099849609, "latestValueLabel": "$2.1B", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on June 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 2096303160.0569, "endValueLabel": "$2.1B", "changePct": -0.2, "direction": "flat", "mapePct": 8.4, "horizonPeriod": "2026-12", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 687856631.1521001 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 871840356.8511045 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 871840356.8511045 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 871840356.8511045 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 1304056410.8810613 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 1741470958.2245588 } ] }, "seasonal": false, "damped": true }, { "key": "fx.cad", "slug": "canadian-dollar", "title": "Canadian Dollar", "unit": "CAD per USD", "category": "Exchange rates", "source": "Federal Reserve H.10 via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCAUS", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 61, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 1.4105, "latestValueLabel": "1.4105", "cadence": "daily", "anchorNote": "This series publishes daily. The model averages those daily readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest daily reading, 1.3895 on 2026-08-28, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-28", "excludedValueLabel": "1.3895", "published": true, "gate": "published", "reason": null, "endValue": 1.4115, "endValueLabel": "1.4115", "changePct": 0.1, "direction": "flat", "mapePct": 1.7, "horizonPeriod": "2027-01", "band": { "method": "empirical", "level": 80, "perHorizon": [ { "h": 1, "n": 18, "halfWidth": 0.054005013992072026 }, { "h": 2, "n": 17, "halfWidth": 0.06182399452604548 }, { "h": 3, "n": 16, "halfWidth": 0.06645525257927831 }, { "h": 4, "n": 15, "halfWidth": 0.07726166213472352 }, { "h": 5, "n": 14, "halfWidth": 0.07726166213472352 }, { "h": 6, "n": 13, "halfWidth": 0.07726166213472352 } ] }, "seasonal": true, "damped": true }, { "key": "rates.fedFunds", "slug": "effective-federal-funds-rate", "title": "Effective Federal Funds Rate", "unit": "%", "category": "Interest rates", "source": "Federal Reserve via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 44, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 3.6281, "latestValueLabel": "3.63%", "cadence": "daily", "anchorNote": "This series publishes daily. The model averages those daily readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest daily reading, 3.63% on 2026-08-31, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-31", "excludedValueLabel": "3.63%", "published": false, "gate": "skipped-rule", "reason": "Not a projectable time series (policy rate, wage panel, single-shot, or productivity).", "endValue": null, "endValueLabel": null, "changePct": null, "direction": null, "mapePct": null, "horizonPeriod": null, "band": null, "seasonal": false, "damped": false }, { "key": "rates.prime", "slug": "bank-prime-loan-rate", "title": "Bank Prime Loan Rate", "unit": "%", "category": "Interest rates", "source": "Federal Reserve via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPRIME", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 61, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 6.75, "latestValueLabel": "6.75%", "cadence": "daily", "anchorNote": "This series publishes daily. The model averages those daily readings into one point per calendar month and forecasts monthly, so it is anchored on July 2026 — the most recent COMPLETE month. The newest daily reading, 6.75% on 2026-08-26, is not in the anchor yet — it belongs to a month that is still filling, and joins the model once that month closes.", "excludedPeriod": "2026-08-26", "excludedValueLabel": "6.75%", "published": false, "gate": "skipped-rule", "reason": "Not a projectable time series (policy rate, wage panel, single-shot, or productivity).", "endValue": null, "endValueLabel": null, "changePct": null, "direction": null, "mapePct": null, "horizonPeriod": null, "band": null, "seasonal": false, "damped": false }, { "key": "fedSurveys.dallasFed", "slug": "dallas-fed-manufacturing-survey", "title": "Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey", "unit": "index", "category": "Regional Fed surveys", "source": "Federal Reserve district surveys via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BACTSAMFRBDAL", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 267, "latestPeriod": "2026-08", "latestValue": 11.6, "latestValueLabel": "11.60", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on August 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": false, "gate": "error-too-high", "reason": "Backtest error above the 35% ceiling — too noisy to publish a point forecast (e.g. a diffusion index that oscillates around zero).", "endValue": null, "endValueLabel": null, "changePct": null, "direction": null, "mapePct": null, "horizonPeriod": null, "band": null, "seasonal": false, "damped": false }, { "key": "fedSurveys.empire", "slug": "empire-state-manufacturing-survey", "title": "Empire State Manufacturing Survey", "unit": "index", "category": "Regional Fed surveys", "source": "Federal Reserve district surveys via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GACDISA066MSFRBNY", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 302, "latestPeriod": "2026-08", "latestValue": 20.6, "latestValueLabel": "20.60", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on August 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": false, "gate": "error-too-high", "reason": "Backtest error above the 35% ceiling — too noisy to publish a point forecast (e.g. a diffusion index that oscillates around zero).", "endValue": null, "endValueLabel": null, "changePct": null, "direction": null, "mapePct": null, "horizonPeriod": null, "band": null, "seasonal": false, "damped": false }, { "key": "productivity.laborProductivity", "slug": "manufacturing-labor-productivity-quarterly-change", "title": "Manufacturing Labor Productivity, Quarterly Change", "unit": "% change (annualized)", "category": "Labor", "source": "BLS Productivity and Costs", "sourceUrl": "https://www.bls.gov/productivity/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 14, "latestPeriod": "2026-Q2", "latestValue": 1.9, "latestValueLabel": "1.90%", "cadence": "quarterly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes quarterly, so the model is anchored on 2026-Q2, the newest quarter released. Quarterly sources move slowly by nature; the horizon is still projected in months.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": false, "gate": "skipped-rule", "reason": "Not a projectable time series (policy rate, wage panel, single-shot, or productivity).", "endValue": null, "endValueLabel": null, "changePct": null, "direction": null, "mapePct": null, "horizonPeriod": null, "band": null, "seasonal": false, "damped": false }, { "key": "productivity.unitLaborCosts", "slug": "manufacturing-unit-labor-costs-quarterly-change", "title": "Manufacturing Unit Labor Costs, Quarterly Change", "unit": "% change (annualized)", "category": "Labor", "source": "BLS Productivity and Costs", "sourceUrl": "https://www.bls.gov/productivity/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 14, "latestPeriod": "2026-Q2", "latestValue": 0, "latestValueLabel": "0.00%", "cadence": "quarterly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes quarterly, so the model is anchored on 2026-Q2, the newest quarter released. Quarterly sources move slowly by nature; the horizon is still projected in months.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": false, "gate": "skipped-rule", "reason": "Not a projectable time series (policy rate, wage panel, single-shot, or productivity).", "endValue": null, "endValueLabel": null, "changePct": null, "direction": null, "mapePct": null, "horizonPeriod": null, "band": null, "seasonal": false, "damped": false }, { "key": "fedSurveys.phillyFed", "slug": "philadelphia-fed-manufacturing-survey", "title": "Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey", "unit": "index", "category": "Regional Fed surveys", "source": "Federal Reserve district surveys via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GACDFSA066MSFRBPHI", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 700, "latestPeriod": "2026-08", "latestValue": 47.4, "latestValueLabel": "47.40", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on August 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": false, "gate": "error-too-high", "reason": "Backtest error above the 35% ceiling — too noisy to publish a point forecast (e.g. a diffusion index that oscillates around zero).", "endValue": null, "endValueLabel": null, "changePct": null, "direction": null, "mapePct": null, "horizonPeriod": null, "band": null, "seasonal": false, "damped": false }, { "key": "fedSurveys.regionalComposite", "slug": "regional-fed-manufacturing-composite", "title": "Regional Fed Manufacturing Composite", "unit": "index", "category": "Regional Fed surveys", "source": "Federal Reserve district surveys via FRED", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 14, "latestPeriod": "2026-08", "latestValue": 26.53, "latestValueLabel": "26.53", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on August 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": false, "gate": "error-too-high", "reason": "Backtest error above the 35% ceiling — too noisy to publish a point forecast (e.g. a diffusion index that oscillates around zero).", "endValue": null, "endValueLabel": null, "changePct": null, "direction": null, "mapePct": null, "horizonPeriod": null, "band": null, "seasonal": false, "damped": false }, { "key": "workforce.employmentByState", "slug": "manufacturing-employment-by-state", "title": "Manufacturing Employment by State", "unit": "thousands of employees", "category": "Labor", "source": "BLS State and Metro Area Employment", "sourceUrl": "https://www.bls.gov/sae/", "sourceHref": null, "obs": 3, "latestPeriod": "2026-07", "latestValue": 12611, "latestValueLabel": "12,611", "cadence": "monthly", "anchorNote": "This series publishes monthly, so the model forecasts directly on it and is anchored on July 2026, the newest month the source has released. Any gap to today is the agency's publication lag, not a stale model.", "excludedPeriod": null, "excludedValueLabel": null, "published": false, "gate": "too-short", "reason": "Fewer than 12 monthly observations to backtest a forecast.", "endValue": null, "endValueLabel": null, "changePct": null, "direction": null, "mapePct": null, "horizonPeriod": null, "band": null, "seasonal": false, "damped": false } ], "methodology": { "name": "MFG Calcs Forecasts: Six-Month Outlook for Every Live Series", "slug": "us-manufacturing-forecasts", "version": "1.0.0", "url": "https://www.mfgcalcs.com/signals/forecasts", "formula": "Each series is collapsed to one point per calendar month (mean), then projected 6 months with damped Holt-Winters exponential smoothing. Smoothing and damping parameters are selected only within an earlier tuning segment using walk-forward validation. A separate calibration segment supplies horizon-specific residual widths, and the reported MAPE comes from a final evaluation segment that was used by neither model selection nor interval calibration.", "gate": "Published only when a series has at least 12 monthly observations and the final untouched evaluation MAPE is at or below 35%. Series held back keep a stated reason (too short, error too high, or not a projectable time series).", "caveat": "STATISTICAL EXTRAPOLATION of each series' own shape, not a market or policy forecast. It knows nothing about pending Fed decisions, OPEC actions, or Federal Register notices. The interval is an empirical residual band, not a formal finite-sample conformal guarantee. Read the band, evaluation sample count, and error together with the central line.", "unit": "central path plus an 80% empirical residual band; change in percent; error as MAPE percent. Each horizon's width is derived from fixed-parameter walk-forward errors in a dedicated calibration segment that did not select the parameters and is separate from the final reported evaluation segment. Each row reports the method, per-horizon calibration counts, and half-widths. Short histories fall back to a clearly labelled Gaussian residual band.", "source": "U.S. federal open data (FRED, BLS, EIA, Census, IMF) plus derived MFG Calcs tariff Signals over USITC DataWeb (the Tariff Bill and per-family monthly import customs value).", "provenance": "Derived from public-domain U.S. government series. Redistributable.", "note": "Derived tariff Signals forecast genuine dollar flows; the effective tariff RATE is deliberately not forecast here (a policy-set rate is a step function, not a stochastic series). The ETI page and /api/eti-outlook carry a separately labeled CONDITIONAL drift path for that rate under policies already in force.", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "attribution": "MFG Calcs (mfgcalcs.com), compiled from U.S. federal open data", "asOf": "2026-08" } }