{ "version": "1.1.0", "asOf": "2026-06", "status": "final", "finalThrough": "2026-06", "provisionalMonths": [], "missingComponents": [], "componentStatus": [ { "key": "newOrders", "label": "New Orders", "through": "2026-06", "lagMonths": 1, "stalled": false }, { "key": "production", "label": "Production", "through": "2026-07", "lagMonths": 0, "stalled": false }, { "key": "employment", "label": "Employment", "through": "2026-07", "lagMonths": 0, "stalled": false }, { "key": "supplierDeliveries", "label": "Supplier Deliveries", "through": "2026-06", "lagMonths": 1, "stalled": false }, { "key": "inventories", "label": "Inventories", "through": "2026-06", "lagMonths": 1, "stalled": false } ], "priorMonth": "2026-05", "headline": 50, "priorHeadline": 48.7, "momChange": 1.3, "threeMonthAvg": 50.7, "phase": "neutral", "streakMonths": 1, "windowStart": "2001-01", "components": [ { "key": "newOrders", "label": "New Orders", "weight": 0.2, "effectiveWeight": 0.2, "note": "Census M3 manufacturers' new orders — the demand pipeline.", "subIndex": 49.3, "contribution": 9.86, "direction": "contraction", "members": [ { "key": "demand.newOrders", "label": "New Orders (Census M3)", "value": 656547, "momPct": -0.3, "subIndex": 49.3, "direction": "contraction" } ] }, { "key": "production", "label": "Production", "weight": 0.2, "effectiveWeight": 0.2, "note": "Fed G.17 factory output and how hard plants are running.", "subIndex": 51.4, "contribution": 10.28, "direction": "expansion", "members": [ { "key": "demand.industrialProduction", "label": "Industrial Production (mfg)", "value": 99.15, "momPct": 0.3, "subIndex": 51.6, "direction": "expansion" }, { "key": "capacityUtilization.manufacturing", "label": "Capacity Utilization (mfg)", "value": 75.9, "momPct": 0.3, "subIndex": 51.2, "direction": "expansion" } ] }, { "key": "employment", "label": "Employment", "weight": 0.2, "effectiveWeight": 0.2, "note": "Factory workweek and open jobs — the labor the sector is pulling in.", "subIndex": 50, "contribution": 10, "direction": "neutral", "members": [ { "key": "demand.weeklyHours", "label": "Average Weekly Hours (mfg)", "value": 41.7, "momPct": 0.2, "subIndex": 51.7, "direction": "expansion" }, { "key": "demand.jobOpenings", "label": "Job Openings (JOLTS mfg)", "value": 501, "momPct": -3.1, "subIndex": 48.4, "direction": "contraction" } ] }, { "key": "supplierDeliveries", "label": "Supplier Deliveries", "weight": 0.2, "effectiveWeight": 0.2, "note": "ATA truck tonnage — a goods-movement proxy for delivery activity.", "subIndex": 51.5, "contribution": 10.3, "direction": "expansion", "members": [ { "key": "demand.truckTonnage", "label": "Truck Tonnage (ATA)", "value": 113.3, "momPct": 0.4, "subIndex": 51.5, "direction": "expansion" } ] }, { "key": "inventories", "label": "Inventories", "weight": 0.2, "effectiveWeight": 0.2, "note": "Census inventories-to-sales, inverted — leaner stocks read expansionary.", "subIndex": 48, "contribution": 9.6, "direction": "contraction", "members": [ { "key": "demand.inventoriesToSales", "label": "Inventories-to-Sales", "value": 1.48, "momPct": 0.7, "subIndex": 48, "direction": "contraction" } ] } ], "history": [ [ "2001-01", 47.6 ], [ "2001-02", 50.3 ], [ "2001-03", 49.5 ], [ "2001-04", 44.3 ], [ "2001-05", 53.4 ], [ "2001-06", 47.3 ], [ "2001-07", 48.6 ], [ "2001-08", 50.9 ], [ "2001-09", 47.9 ], [ "2001-10", 49.7 ], [ "2001-11", 48.1 ], [ "2001-12", 51.7 ], [ "2002-01", 51.7 ], [ "2002-02", 53 ], [ "2002-03", 50.4 ], [ "2002-04", 52.2 ], [ "2002-05", 52.2 ], [ "2002-06", 50.5 ], [ "2002-07", 50.8 ], [ "2002-08", 50.9 ], [ "2002-09", 50 ], [ "2002-10", 48.5 ], [ "2002-11", 51.9 ], [ "2002-12", 48.1 ], [ "2003-01", 51 ], [ "2003-02", 50.5 ], [ "2003-03", 51.9 ], [ "2003-04", 45.5 ], [ "2003-05", 51 ], [ "2003-06", 52.2 ], [ "2003-07", 52.1 ], [ "2003-08", 49.6 ], [ "2003-09", 53.8 ], [ "2003-10", 52.8 ], [ "2003-11", 51.7 ], [ "2003-12", 51.4 ], [ "2004-01", 49 ], [ "2004-02", 50.9 ], [ "2004-03", 55.9 ], [ "2004-04", 49.2 ], [ "2004-05", 51.4 ], [ "2004-06", 49.2 ], [ "2004-07", 50.7 ], [ "2004-08", 49.9 ], [ "2004-09", 50.6 ], [ "2004-10", 52.1 ], [ "2004-11", 50.4 ], [ "2004-12", 51.5 ], [ "2005-01", 54.6 ], [ "2005-02", 48.7 ], [ "2005-03", 47.3 ], [ "2005-04", 53.2 ], [ "2005-05", 49.7 ], [ "2005-06", 50.9 ], [ "2005-07", 47.7 ], [ "2005-08", 54.6 ], [ "2005-09", 50.3 ], [ "2005-10", 51.1 ], [ "2005-11", 55.3 ], [ "2005-12", 48.5 ], [ "2006-01", 49.8 ], [ "2006-02", 49.5 ], [ "2006-03", 50.5 ], [ "2006-04", 47.9 ], [ "2006-05", 52 ], [ "2006-06", 49.7 ], [ "2006-07", 46.1 ], [ "2006-08", 49.6 ], [ "2006-09", 51.7 ], [ "2006-10", 46.8 ], [ "2006-11", 49 ], [ "2006-12", 55.8 ], [ "2007-01", 46.8 ], [ "2007-02", 51.6 ], [ "2007-03", 54.3 ], [ "2007-04", 49.2 ], [ "2007-05", 49.9 ], [ "2007-06", 49.9 ], [ "2007-07", 50.2 ], [ "2007-08", 49.9 ], [ "2007-09", 48.4 ], [ "2007-10", 52.2 ], [ "2007-11", 52.7 ], [ "2007-12", 49.9 ], [ "2008-01", 52.1 ], [ "2008-02", 46.4 ], [ "2008-03", 49 ], [ "2008-04", 52.2 ], [ "2008-05", 48.6 ], [ "2008-06", 50.2 ], [ "2008-07", 48.1 ], [ "2008-08", 44.3 ], [ "2008-09", 43.5 ], [ "2008-10", 43.7 ], [ "2008-11", 37.7 ], [ "2008-12", 41 ], [ "2009-01", 39.8 ], [ "2009-02", 53.6 ], [ "2009-03", 41.6 ], [ "2009-04", 47.7 ], [ "2009-05", 51.6 ], [ "2009-06", 52.4 ], [ "2009-07", 53.9 ], [ "2009-08", 55.2 ], [ "2009-09", 54.3 ], [ "2009-10", 50.7 ], [ "2009-11", 55 ], [ "2009-12", 52.9 ], [ "2010-01", 53.8 ], [ "2010-02", 50 ], [ "2010-03", 53.8 ], [ "2010-04", 52.3 ], [ "2010-05", 51.5 ], [ "2010-06", 49 ], [ "2010-07", 52 ], [ "2010-08", 49.8 ], [ "2010-09", 52.4 ], [ "2010-10", 50.7 ], [ "2010-11", 51.4 ], [ "2010-12", 51.4 ], [ "2011-01", 53.6 ], [ "2011-02", 48.9 ], [ "2011-03", 55.8 ], [ "2011-04", 47.1 ], [ "2011-05", 48.8 ], [ "2011-06", 50.7 ], [ "2011-07", 50.8 ], [ "2011-08", 52.2 ], [ "2011-09", 50.2 ], [ "2011-10", 50.3 ], [ "2011-11", 51.1 ], [ "2011-12", 54.2 ], [ "2012-01", 49.6 ], [ "2012-02", 50.3 ], [ "2012-03", 51.6 ], [ "2012-04", 47.9 ], [ "2012-05", 50.4 ], [ "2012-06", 49.8 ], [ "2012-07", 49.4 ], [ "2012-08", 48.3 ], [ "2012-09", 50.6 ], [ "2012-10", 49.5 ], [ "2012-11", 51.8 ], [ "2012-12", 52.4 ], [ "2013-01", 51.2 ], [ "2013-02", 54.5 ], [ "2013-03", 46.5 ], [ "2013-04", 49.4 ], [ "2013-05", 53.3 ], [ "2013-06", 49.5 ], [ "2013-07", 47.7 ], [ "2013-08", 53.1 ], [ "2013-09", 51 ], [ "2013-10", 49.9 ], [ "2013-11", 54.4 ], [ "2013-12", 47.6 ], [ "2014-01", 44.7 ], [ "2014-02", 54.2 ], [ "2014-03", 51.5 ], [ "2014-04", 50.4 ], [ "2014-05", 50.4 ], [ "2014-06", 50.8 ], [ "2014-07", 55.4 ], [ "2014-08", 45.8 ], [ "2014-09", 49.7 ], [ "2014-10", 48.8 ], [ "2014-11", 50.3 ], [ "2014-12", 48.1 ], [ "2015-01", 47 ], [ "2015-02", 48.5 ], [ "2015-03", 53.6 ], [ "2015-04", 47.5 ], [ "2015-05", 49.6 ], [ "2015-06", 50.6 ], [ "2015-07", 51.4 ], [ "2015-08", 48.6 ], [ "2015-09", 49.2 ], [ "2015-10", 50 ], [ "2015-11", 48.3 ], [ "2015-12", 49.3 ], [ "2016-01", 52.5 ], [ "2016-02", 47.7 ], [ "2016-03", 50.7 ], [ "2016-04", 53.6 ], [ "2016-05", 47.9 ], [ "2016-06", 49.5 ], [ "2016-07", 52 ], [ "2016-08", 47 ], [ "2016-09", 50.1 ], [ "2016-10", 52.2 ], [ "2016-11", 49.1 ], [ "2016-12", 53.3 ], [ "2017-01", 50 ], [ "2017-02", 50.4 ], [ "2017-03", 49.7 ], [ "2017-04", 51.8 ], [ "2017-05", 49.7 ], [ "2017-06", 51.1 ], [ "2017-07", 50 ], [ "2017-08", 51.9 ], [ "2017-09", 51.8 ], [ "2017-10", 51.4 ], [ "2017-11", 52.3 ], [ "2017-12", 51.3 ], [ "2018-01", 47.6 ], [ "2018-02", 53.8 ], [ "2018-03", 50.9 ], [ "2018-04", 50.9 ], [ "2018-05", 50.6 ], [ "2018-06", 51.5 ], [ "2018-07", 48.2 ], [ "2018-08", 52.2 ], [ "2018-09", 50.6 ], [ "2018-10", 49.4 ], [ "2018-11", 49.1 ], [ "2018-12", 48.9 ], [ "2019-01", 47.8 ], [ "2019-02", 49.4 ], [ "2019-03", 49.9 ], [ "2019-04", 49 ], [ "2019-05", 49.5 ], [ "2019-06", 49.6 ], [ "2019-07", 49.3 ], [ "2019-08", 50.9 ], [ "2019-09", 46.6 ], [ "2019-10", 47.7 ], [ "2019-11", 50.1 ], [ "2019-12", 49.1 ], [ "2020-01", 49.5 ], [ "2020-02", 50.5 ], [ "2020-03", 37.8 ], [ "2020-04", 14.1 ], [ "2020-05", 62 ], [ "2020-06", 68.1 ], [ "2020-07", 62.5 ], [ "2020-08", 52 ], [ "2020-09", 51.2 ], [ "2020-10", 53.6 ], [ "2020-11", 51.2 ], [ "2020-12", 54.3 ], [ "2021-01", 54.5 ], [ "2021-02", 43.9 ], [ "2021-03", 56.2 ], [ "2021-04", 51.9 ], [ "2021-05", 50.7 ], [ "2021-06", 50.1 ], [ "2021-07", 51.6 ], [ "2021-08", 48.5 ], [ "2021-09", 49.9 ], [ "2021-10", 53.6 ], [ "2021-11", 51.1 ], [ "2021-12", 51.8 ], [ "2022-01", 48.9 ], [ "2022-02", 49.9 ], [ "2022-03", 53.5 ], [ "2022-04", 50.4 ], [ "2022-05", 48 ], [ "2022-06", 50.8 ], [ "2022-07", 47.9 ], [ "2022-08", 49.2 ], [ "2022-09", 51.1 ], [ "2022-10", 49.6 ], [ "2022-11", 46.2 ], [ "2022-12", 48.1 ], [ "2023-01", 53.2 ], [ "2023-02", 47.3 ], [ "2023-03", 48.3 ], [ "2023-04", 50 ], [ "2023-05", 49 ], [ "2023-06", 50.9 ], [ "2023-07", 50.1 ], [ "2023-08", 51.1 ], [ "2023-09", 51.1 ], [ "2023-10", 47.5 ], [ "2023-11", 50 ], [ "2023-12", 52.6 ], [ "2024-01", 43.3 ], [ "2024-02", 53.1 ], [ "2024-03", 50.3 ], [ "2024-04", 49.7 ], [ "2024-05", 51.4 ], [ "2024-06", 48.4 ], [ "2024-07", 50.4 ], [ "2024-08", 50.2 ], [ "2024-09", 49 ], [ "2024-10", 49.3 ], [ "2024-11", 49.7 ], [ "2024-12", 50.4 ], [ "2025-01", 50.5 ], [ "2025-02", 51.4 ], [ "2025-03", 51.8 ], [ "2025-04", 47.4 ], [ "2025-05", 54 ], [ "2025-06", 48.4 ], [ "2025-07", 51.1 ], [ "2025-08", 50.8 ], [ "2025-09", 49 ], [ "2025-10", 48.5 ], [ "2025-11", 51 ], [ "2025-12", 50.2 ], [ "2026-01", 52.5 ], [ "2026-02", 52.4 ], [ "2026-03", 52.4 ], [ "2026-04", 53.4 ], [ "2026-05", 48.7 ], [ "2026-06", 50 ] ], "surveys": [ { "key": "empire", "label": "Empire State Manufacturing Survey", "raw": 20.6, "converted": 60.3, "direction": "expansion", "asOf": "2026-08", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GACDISA066MSFRBNY" }, { "key": "phillyFed", "label": "Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey", "raw": 47.4, "converted": 73.7, "direction": "expansion", "asOf": "2026-08", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GACDFSA066MSFRBPHI" }, { "key": "dallasFed", "label": "Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey", "raw": 11.6, "converted": 55.8, "direction": "expansion", "asOf": "2026-08", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BACTSAMFRBDAL" }, { "key": "regionalComposite", "label": "Regional Fed Manufacturing Composite", "raw": 26.5, "converted": 63.3, "direction": "expansion", "asOf": "2026-08", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/" } ], "methodology": { "name": "MFG Calcs PMI", "slug": "mfg-calcs-manufacturing-pmi", "version": "1.1.0", "url": "https://www.mfgcalcs.com/signals/pmi", "formula": "A free, open, reproducible Purchasing Managers' Index-style diffusion index for U.S. manufacturing, built entirely from public federal hard data. Five components, each equal-weighted at 20% (New Orders; Production; Employment; Supplier Deliveries; Inventories). Each underlying series is converted to a 0-100 sub-index from its month-over-month percent change, standardized by that series' own historical volatility: sub = clamp(50 + K x (sign x MoM% / sigma), 0, 100), where sigma is the population standard deviation of the series' monthly percent changes over its full cited history, sign is +1 (or -1 for the inverted inventories-to-sales series), and K = 5 is a frozen scale so a one-standard-deviation monthly move shifts a component 5 points. 50 = no month-over-month change; above 50 is expansion, below is contraction. Each component is the equal-weighted average of its member sub-indexes and counts only when every one of its member series is computable; the headline is the 0.20-weighted sum of the five. The FINAL index is published only for months where all five components are computable, so composition is constant. Because the five components do not publish on the same calendar, months beyond the final window with at least 4 of the 5 components available are published as a PROVISIONAL reading over the components present, with their weights renormalized to sum to 1 (equivalently, the missing component is imputed at the average of the others); such months are flagged status=provisional, the absent components are named in missingComponents, and the reading is revised to final when they publish. Below 4 of 5 nothing is published. Per-component freshness (newest computable month, months of lag, and a stalled flag at 3+ months) is published in componentStatus so a source series that stops updating is visible rather than silently freezing the headline. Also published: the month-over-month change, a 3-month average, and the run of consecutive months on one side of 50.", "components": "FROZEN v1.1.0 components: New Orders (20%: New Orders (Census M3)); Production (20%: Industrial Production (mfg) + Capacity Utilization (mfg)); Employment (20%: Average Weekly Hours (mfg) + Job Openings (JOLTS mfg)); Supplier Deliveries (20%: Truck Tonnage (ATA)); Inventories (20%: Inventories-to-Sales). Pinned and versioned, never tuned to a result.", "unit": "diffusion index, 0 to 100; 50 = expansion/contraction line.", "scope": "An ILLUSTRATIVE composite modeled on the ISM and S&P Global PMIs, which are proprietary survey indexes. This one is a hard-data diffusion index, not a survey, built only from public federal series, so anyone can rebuild it from the cited data. The regional Federal Reserve manufacturing survey indexes (Empire State, Philadelphia, Dallas) are published alongside as an independent corroboration panel, converted to the same 50-centered scale via 50 + balance/2; they are context, not part of the headline.", "source": "U.S. federal open data — Census manufacturers' new orders and inventories-to-sales, Federal Reserve G.17 industrial production and capacity utilization, BLS manufacturing average weekly hours and JOLTS job openings, ATA/FRED truck tonnage; Federal Reserve district manufacturing surveys via FRED for the corroboration panel.", "provenance": "Derived from public-domain U.S. government series. Redistributable.", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "attribution": "MFG Calcs (mfgcalcs.com)", "asOf": "2026-06", "headline": 50 } }