{
  "version": "2.0.0",
  "asOf": "2025",
  "baseYear": "2024",
  "latestYear": "2025",
  "matchedCount": 20,
  "clearsCount": 12,
  "clearsPct": 60,
  "rows": [
    {
      "family": "plastics-rubber-machinery",
      "label": "Plastics and rubber machinery",
      "unit": "No.",
      "domesticPpi": "machinery",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Machinery and equipment",
      "importYoyPct": 120.7,
      "domesticYoyPct": 3.8,
      "effectiveRatePct": 10.63,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": -52.9,
      "gapPp": 63.6,
      "verdict": "tariff-clears",
      "url": "/tariffs/plastics-rubber-machinery"
    },
    {
      "family": "steel-fasteners",
      "label": "Steel fasteners",
      "unit": "kg",
      "domesticPpi": "fasteners",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Metal fasteners",
      "importYoyPct": -6.2,
      "domesticYoyPct": 3.3,
      "effectiveRatePct": 35.91,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 10.1,
      "gapPp": 25.8,
      "verdict": "tariff-clears",
      "url": "/tariffs/steel-fasteners"
    },
    {
      "family": "aluminum-semis",
      "label": "Aluminum semi-finished products",
      "unit": "kg",
      "domesticPpi": "aluminum",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Aluminum mill shapes",
      "importYoyPct": 3.7,
      "domesticYoyPct": 13,
      "effectiveRatePct": 32.81,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 9,
      "gapPp": 23.8,
      "verdict": "tariff-clears",
      "url": "/tariffs/aluminum-semis"
    },
    {
      "family": "welding-equipment",
      "label": "Welding equipment",
      "unit": "No.",
      "domesticPpi": "machinery",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Machinery and equipment",
      "importYoyPct": 10.7,
      "domesticYoyPct": 3.8,
      "effectiveRatePct": 10.84,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": -6.2,
      "gapPp": 17,
      "verdict": "tariff-clears",
      "url": "/tariffs/welding-equipment"
    },
    {
      "family": "stainless-steel",
      "label": "Stainless steel mill products",
      "unit": "kg",
      "domesticPpi": "steel",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Steel mill products",
      "importYoyPct": -6.9,
      "domesticYoyPct": 2.4,
      "effectiveRatePct": 26.03,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 10,
      "gapPp": 16,
      "verdict": "tariff-clears",
      "url": "/tariffs/stainless-steel"
    },
    {
      "family": "steel-flat-rolled",
      "label": "Steel flat-rolled products",
      "unit": "kg",
      "domesticPpi": "steel",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Steel mill products",
      "importYoyPct": -5.3,
      "domesticYoyPct": 2.4,
      "effectiveRatePct": 23.88,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 8.2,
      "gapPp": 15.7,
      "verdict": "tariff-clears",
      "url": "/tariffs/steel-flat-rolled"
    },
    {
      "family": "steel-structures",
      "label": "Fabricated structural steel",
      "unit": "kg",
      "domesticPpi": "steel",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Steel mill products",
      "importYoyPct": -4.2,
      "domesticYoyPct": 2.4,
      "effectiveRatePct": 20.77,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 6.9,
      "gapPp": 13.9,
      "verdict": "tariff-clears",
      "url": "/tariffs/steel-structures"
    },
    {
      "family": "machine-tools-cutting",
      "label": "Metal-cutting machine tools",
      "unit": "No.",
      "domesticPpi": "machinery",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Machinery and equipment",
      "importYoyPct": 6.8,
      "domesticYoyPct": 3.8,
      "effectiveRatePct": 9.45,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": -2.7,
      "gapPp": 12.2,
      "verdict": "tariff-clears",
      "url": "/tariffs/machine-tools-cutting"
    },
    {
      "family": "adhesives-sealants",
      "label": "Adhesives and sealants",
      "unit": "kg",
      "domesticPpi": "chemicals",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Industrial chemicals",
      "importYoyPct": -2.3,
      "domesticYoyPct": -1.2,
      "effectiveRatePct": 11.27,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 1.1,
      "gapPp": 10.2,
      "verdict": "tariff-clears",
      "url": "/tariffs/adhesives-sealants"
    },
    {
      "family": "steel-pipe-tube",
      "label": "Steel pipe and tube",
      "unit": "kg",
      "domesticPpi": "steel",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Steel mill products",
      "importYoyPct": -11.4,
      "domesticYoyPct": 2.4,
      "effectiveRatePct": 25.63,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 15.5,
      "gapPp": 10.1,
      "verdict": "tariff-clears",
      "url": "/tariffs/steel-pipe-tube"
    },
    {
      "family": "compressors-fans",
      "label": "Compressors and fans",
      "unit": "No.",
      "domesticPpi": "machinery",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Machinery and equipment",
      "importYoyPct": -3.5,
      "domesticYoyPct": 3.8,
      "effectiveRatePct": 14.68,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 7.6,
      "gapPp": 7,
      "verdict": "tariff-clears",
      "url": "/tariffs/compressors-fans"
    },
    {
      "family": "steel-long-products",
      "label": "Steel bar, rod, and wire",
      "unit": "kg",
      "domesticPpi": "steel",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Steel mill products",
      "importYoyPct": -11.5,
      "domesticYoyPct": 2.4,
      "effectiveRatePct": 22.09,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 15.7,
      "gapPp": 6.4,
      "verdict": "tariff-clears",
      "url": "/tariffs/steel-long-products"
    },
    {
      "family": "plastics-resins",
      "label": "Plastics in primary forms",
      "unit": "kg",
      "domesticPpi": "resins",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Plastic resins",
      "importYoyPct": -6.3,
      "domesticYoyPct": -1.1,
      "effectiveRatePct": 5.39,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 5.5,
      "gapPp": -0.2,
      "verdict": "near-parity",
      "url": "/tariffs/plastics-resins"
    },
    {
      "family": "powered-hand-tools",
      "label": "Powered hand tools",
      "unit": "No.",
      "domesticPpi": "machinery",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Machinery and equipment",
      "importYoyPct": -9.7,
      "domesticYoyPct": 3.8,
      "effectiveRatePct": 13.76,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 15,
      "gapPp": -1.2,
      "verdict": "near-parity",
      "url": "/tariffs/powered-hand-tools"
    },
    {
      "family": "aluminum-articles",
      "label": "Aluminum articles",
      "unit": "kg",
      "domesticPpi": "aluminum",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Aluminum mill shapes",
      "importYoyPct": -24,
      "domesticYoyPct": 13,
      "effectiveRatePct": 31.11,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 48.7,
      "gapPp": -17.6,
      "verdict": "below-break-even",
      "url": "/tariffs/aluminum-articles"
    },
    {
      "family": "copper-semis",
      "label": "Copper semi-finished products",
      "unit": "kg",
      "domesticPpi": "copper",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Copper and brass mill shapes",
      "importYoyPct": 3.3,
      "domesticYoyPct": 35.2,
      "effectiveRatePct": 10.82,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 30.8,
      "gapPp": -20,
      "verdict": "below-break-even",
      "url": "/tariffs/copper-semis"
    },
    {
      "family": "molds-dies",
      "label": "Molds and die sets",
      "unit": "No.",
      "domesticPpi": "machinery",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Machinery and equipment",
      "importYoyPct": -28,
      "domesticYoyPct": 3.8,
      "effectiveRatePct": 14.1,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 44.3,
      "gapPp": -30.2,
      "verdict": "below-break-even",
      "url": "/tariffs/molds-dies"
    },
    {
      "family": "semiconductor-equipment",
      "label": "Semiconductor and display equipment",
      "unit": "No.",
      "domesticPpi": "machinery",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Machinery and equipment",
      "importYoyPct": -23,
      "domesticYoyPct": 3.8,
      "effectiveRatePct": 4.16,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 34.8,
      "gapPp": -30.6,
      "verdict": "below-break-even",
      "url": "/tariffs/semiconductor-equipment"
    },
    {
      "family": "industrial-robots",
      "label": "Robots and automated machinery",
      "unit": "No.",
      "domesticPpi": "machinery",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Machinery and equipment",
      "importYoyPct": -28.9,
      "domesticYoyPct": 3.8,
      "effectiveRatePct": 13.61,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 46,
      "gapPp": -32.4,
      "verdict": "below-break-even",
      "url": "/tariffs/industrial-robots"
    },
    {
      "family": "lifting-handling",
      "label": "Lifting and handling equipment",
      "unit": "No.",
      "domesticPpi": "machinery",
      "domesticPpiLabel": "Machinery and equipment",
      "importYoyPct": -34.3,
      "domesticYoyPct": 3.8,
      "effectiveRatePct": 11.37,
      "breakEvenTariffPct": 58.1,
      "gapPp": -46.7,
      "verdict": "below-break-even",
      "url": "/tariffs/lifting-handling"
    }
  ],
  "methodology": {
    "name": "MFG Calcs Reshoring Break-Even Line",
    "slug": "us-manufacturing-reshoring-break-even",
    "version": "2.0.0",
    "url": "https://www.mfgcalcs.com/signals/reshoring-break-even",
    "formula": "For each family with a customs unit value and a matching domestic producer-price series, the import side uses one exact adjacent-calendar-year pair and the domestic side uses the mean of all 12 months in each same calendar year. Incomplete PPI years are excluded. Both paths are indexed to a common base year and parity is ASSUMED there. The modeled crossover is t* = ((1 + domesticYoY) / (1 + importYoY) - 1) x 100. The gap is the observed effective calculated-duty rate minus t*. Its sign locates the observed statistical rate relative to the modeled line; it does not establish an entry's legal rate or current absolute domestic-versus-import dollar costs.",
    "assumption": "Base-year price parity between imported and domestic. Because we do not have a domestic dollar-per-unit cost, this is an indexed, indicative crossover, not a dollar break-even.",
    "unit": "tariff rates in percent; gap in percentage points.",
    "scope": "An INDICATIVE reshoring-pressure signal over 20 families that have both a customs unit value and a matching domestic PPI. Customs unit values shift with product and origin mix, so read the direction, not a precise dollar.",
    "source": "USITC DataWeb customs unit values and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes (public domain).",
    "provenance": "Derived from public-domain U.S. government series. Redistributable.",
    "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "attribution": "MFG Calcs (mfgcalcs.com)",
    "baseYear": "2024",
    "latestYear": "2025"
  }
}