{
  "name": "MFG Calcs Reshoring Break-Even Line",
  "slug": "us-manufacturing-reshoring-break-even",
  "version": "2.0.0",
  "url": "https://www.mfgcalcs.com/signals/reshoring-break-even",
  "formula": "For each family with a customs unit value and a matching domestic producer-price series, the import side uses one exact adjacent-calendar-year pair and the domestic side uses the mean of all 12 months in each same calendar year. Incomplete PPI years are excluded. Both paths are indexed to a common base year and parity is ASSUMED there. The modeled crossover is t* = ((1 + domesticYoY) / (1 + importYoY) - 1) x 100. The gap is the observed effective calculated-duty rate minus t*. Its sign locates the observed statistical rate relative to the modeled line; it does not establish an entry's legal rate or current absolute domestic-versus-import dollar costs.",
  "assumption": "Base-year price parity between imported and domestic. Because we do not have a domestic dollar-per-unit cost, this is an indexed, indicative crossover, not a dollar break-even.",
  "unit": "tariff rates in percent; gap in percentage points.",
  "scope": "An INDICATIVE reshoring-pressure signal over 20 families that have both a customs unit value and a matching domestic PPI. Customs unit values shift with product and origin mix, so read the direction, not a precise dollar.",
  "source": "USITC DataWeb customs unit values and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes (public domain).",
  "provenance": "Derived from public-domain U.S. government series. Redistributable.",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "MFG Calcs (mfgcalcs.com)",
  "baseYear": "2024",
  "latestYear": "2025"
}