{ "name": "U.S. Manufacturing Source-Mix Shift Since 2018", "version": "3.0.0", "description": "For tracked manufacturing families with a reported 2018 baseline and retained China observations in both endpoints, how source-country customs-value shares changed. Each share uses the true annual family total; retained-board coverage is explicit and missing countries are never treated as zero.", "url": "https://www.mfgcalcs.com/signals/source-shifts", "baseYear": "2018", "latestYear": "2025", "unit": "percent of the year's import customs value; deltas in percentage points", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "attribution": "MFG Calcs (mfgcalcs.com), compiled from USITC DataWeb open data", "count": 30, "unsupportedCount": 27, "eligibilityRequirements": [ { "code": "tracked-family-data", "description": "The tracked tariff family must have persisted USITC source-country history." }, { "code": "exact-2018-baseline-and-later-endpoint", "description": "Source-country history must include exact calendar year 2018 and at least one later year." }, { "code": "positive-annual-totals", "description": "Both endpoints must have a finite, positive annual import customs-value total." }, { "code": "usable-endpoint-source-boards", "description": "Both endpoint source boards must contain usable nonnegative country values that do not exceed the annual total." }, { "code": "named-china-at-both-endpoints", "description": "China must be explicitly present at both endpoints; absence from a retained board is unknown, never zero." } ], "unsupportedFamilies": [ { "family": "adhesives-sealants", "label": "Adhesives and sealants", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "aluminum-articles", "label": "Aluminum articles", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "batteries", "label": "Batteries and storage cells", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "compressors-fans", "label": "Compressors and fans", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "copper-semis", "label": "Copper semi-finished products", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-named-china-observation", "reason": "China is not explicitly reported in both the 2018 and 2025 retained source boards, so its missing share cannot be treated as zero.", "availableYears": [ "2014", "2015", "2016", "2017", "2018", "2019", "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "electric-motors", "label": "Electric motors and generators", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "filtering-separation", "label": "Filtering and separation equipment", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "glass-fiber", "label": "Glass fiber and reinforcements", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "heat-exchange", "label": "Heat exchange and process heating", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "industrial-furnaces", "label": "Industrial furnaces and ovens", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "iron-steel-articles", "label": "Iron and steel castings and articles", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "industrial-lighting", "label": "Lamps and LED lighting", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "lifting-handling", "label": "Lifting and handling equipment", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "measuring-instruments", "label": "Measuring and inspection instruments", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "machine-tools-cutting", "label": "Metal-cutting machine tools", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "machine-tools-forming", "label": "Metal-forming machine tools", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "nickel-alloys", "label": "Nickel and nickel alloys", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-named-china-observation", "reason": "China is not explicitly reported in both the 2018 and 2025 retained source boards, so its missing share cannot be treated as zero.", "availableYears": [ "2014", "2015", "2016", "2017", "2018", "2019", "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "coatings-paints", "label": "Paints, coatings, and finishes", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-named-china-observation", "reason": "China is not explicitly reported in both the 2018 and 2025 retained source boards, so its missing share cannot be treated as zero.", "availableYears": [ "2014", "2015", "2016", "2017", "2018", "2019", "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "plastics-rubber-machinery", "label": "Plastics and rubber machinery", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "plastics-resins", "label": "Plastics in primary forms", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "industrial-robots", "label": "Robots and automated machinery", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "semiconductors", "label": "Semiconductors and integrated circuits", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "stainless-steel", "label": "Stainless steel mill products", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-named-china-observation", "reason": "China is not explicitly reported in both the 2018 and 2025 retained source boards, so its missing share cannot be treated as zero.", "availableYears": [ "2014", "2015", "2016", "2017", "2018", "2019", "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "steel-flat-rolled", "label": "Steel flat-rolled products", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-named-china-observation", "reason": "China is not explicitly reported in both the 2018 and 2025 retained source boards, so its missing share cannot be treated as zero.", "availableYears": [ "2014", "2015", "2016", "2017", "2018", "2019", "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "steel-pipe-tube", "label": "Steel pipe and tube", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-named-china-observation", "reason": "China is not explicitly reported in both the 2018 and 2025 retained source boards, so its missing share cannot be treated as zero.", "availableYears": [ "2014", "2015", "2016", "2017", "2018", "2019", "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "switchgear-connectors", "label": "Switchgear, connectors, and controls", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ] }, { "family": "transformers-power", "label": "Transformers and power supplies", "status": "no-data", "reasonCode": "missing-2018-baseline", "reason": "Exact calendar year 2018 is not present in this family's source-country history.", "availableYears": [ "2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ] } ], "families": [ { "family": "powered-hand-tools", "label": "Powered hand tools", "baseYear": "2018", "latestYear": "2025", "topBase": { "country": "China", "sharePct": 62.4 }, "topLatest": { "country": "China", "sharePct": 29.2 }, "flipped": false, "chinaBasePct": 62.4, "chinaLatestPct": 29.2, "chinaDeltaPp": -33.2, "gainer": { "country": "Mexico", "deltaPp": 11.1 }, "chinaSpark": [ [ "2018", 62.4 ], [ "2019", 63.8 ], [ "2020", 52.7 ], [ "2021", 45.3 ], [ "2022", 42.7 ], [ "2023", 35.1 ], [ "2024", 36.8 ], [ "2025", 29.2 ] ], "baseBoardValueCoveragePct": 95.8, "latestBoardValueCoveragePct": 94.9, "endpointBoardsComplete": false }, { "family": "hand-tools", "label": "Hand tools", "baseYear": "2018", "latestYear": "2025", "topBase": { "country": "China", "sharePct": 54.3 }, "topLatest": { "country": "Taiwan", "sharePct": 30 }, "flipped": true, "chinaBasePct": 54.3, "chinaLatestPct": 27.1, "chinaDeltaPp": -27.2, "gainer": { "country": "Taiwan", "deltaPp": 8.8 }, "chinaSpark": [ [ "2018", 54.3 ], [ "2019", 50.2 ], [ "2020", 47.8 ], [ "2021", 43.5 ], [ "2022", 38.3 ], [ "2023", 36.5 ], [ "2024", 34.9 ], [ "2025", 27.1 ] ], "baseBoardValueCoveragePct": 93, "latestBoardValueCoveragePct": 89.4, "endpointBoardsComplete": false }, { "family": "steel-structures", "label": "Fabricated structural steel", "baseYear": "2018", "latestYear": "2025", "topBase": { "country": "China", "sharePct": 31 }, "topLatest": { "country": "Mexico", "sharePct": 22.1 }, "flipped": true, "chinaBasePct": 31, "chinaLatestPct": 9.4, "chinaDeltaPp": -21.6, "gainer": { "country": "Mexico", "deltaPp": 6.1 }, "chinaSpark": [ [ "2018", 31 ], [ "2019", 17.2 ], [ "2020", 14.6 ], [ "2021", 14.2 ], [ "2022", 13 ], [ "2023", 10.6 ], [ "2024", 9.7 ], [ "2025", 9.4 ] ], "baseBoardValueCoveragePct": 87.7, "latestBoardValueCoveragePct": 82.3, "endpointBoardsComplete": false }, { "family": "valves", "label": "Valves and fluid controls", "baseYear": "2018", "latestYear": "2025", "topBase": { "country": "China", "sharePct": 28.6 }, "topLatest": { "country": "Mexico", "sharePct": 20.1 }, "flipped": true, "chinaBasePct": 28.6, "chinaLatestPct": 16.7, "chinaDeltaPp": -11.9, "gainer": { "country": "Mexico", "deltaPp": 4 }, "chinaSpark": [ [ "2018", 28.6 ], [ 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"country": "China", "sharePct": 30.2 }, "topLatest": { "country": "Taiwan", "sharePct": 19.3 }, "flipped": true, "chinaBasePct": 30.2, "chinaLatestPct": 18.5, "chinaDeltaPp": -11.7, "gainer": { "country": "Taiwan", "deltaPp": 8.6 }, "chinaSpark": [ [ "2018", 30.2 ], [ "2019", 23.6 ], [ "2020", 22.6 ], [ "2021", 22.3 ], [ "2022", 20.8 ], [ "2023", 19.5 ], [ "2024", 19.5 ], [ "2025", 18.5 ] ], "baseBoardValueCoveragePct": 84, "latestBoardValueCoveragePct": 82.9, "endpointBoardsComplete": false }, { "family": "carbon-insulators", "label": "Carbon products and insulators", "baseYear": "2018", "latestYear": "2025", "topBase": { "country": "China", "sharePct": 33.6 }, "topLatest": { "country": "China", "sharePct": 22 }, "flipped": false, "chinaBasePct": 33.6, "chinaLatestPct": 22, "chinaDeltaPp": -11.6, "gainer": { "country": "Canada", "deltaPp": 3.4 }, "chinaSpark": [ [ "2018", 33.6 ], [ "2019", 18.2 ], [ "2020", 21.6 ], [ "2021", 19.9 ], [ "2022", 21.5 ], [ "2023", 21.6 ], [ "2024", 23.6 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{ "family": "bearings", "label": "Bearings", "baseYear": "2018", "latestYear": "2025", "topBase": { "country": "Japan", "sharePct": 23.4 }, "topLatest": { "country": "Japan", "sharePct": 21.5 }, "flipped": false, "chinaBasePct": 19.7, "chinaLatestPct": 11.7, "chinaDeltaPp": -8, "gainer": { "country": "Mexico", "deltaPp": 2.3 }, "chinaSpark": [ [ "2018", 19.7 ], [ "2019", 18 ], [ "2020", 19 ], [ "2021", 19 ], [ "2022", 17.6 ], [ "2023", 14.8 ], [ "2024", 14.1 ], [ "2025", 11.7 ] ], "baseBoardValueCoveragePct": 85.2, "latestBoardValueCoveragePct": 84.1, "endpointBoardsComplete": false }, { "family": "optical-components", "label": "Optical elements and lenses", "baseYear": "2018", "latestYear": "2025", "topBase": { "country": "Japan", "sharePct": 18.8 }, "topLatest": { "country": "Japan", "sharePct": 16.7 }, "flipped": false, "chinaBasePct": 16.5, "chinaLatestPct": 8.5, "chinaDeltaPp": -8, "gainer": { "country": "Mexico", "deltaPp": 6.3 }, "chinaSpark": [ [ "2018", 16.5 ], [ "2019", 14.7 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