{
  "name": "MFG Calcs Supply Chain Fragility Index",
  "slug": "us-manufacturing-supply-chain-fragility-index",
  "version": "2.0.0",
  "url": "https://www.mfgcalcs.com/signals/supply-chain-fragility",
  "formula": "A branded 0-100 supply-chain fragility score per manufacturing family (higher = more fragile), plus a manufacturing-wide headline. Four sub-scores per family, each 0-100 where higher = more fragile: concentration = min(100, import HHI / 2500 x 100); dependence = the single largest retained source country's share of true family import value, clamped to 0-100; tariffExposure = min(100, effective calculated-duty rate percent x 2); fxVolatility = min(100, the top source currency's annualized contiguous month-over-month log-return volatility percent x 5). The composite is the weighted average of AVAILABLE sub-scores, with frozen weights renormalized over available components. When HHI comes from a partial retained-source board, concentration and the monotone composite are explicitly lower bounds. The headline is the simple mean of family score floors.",
  "weights": "FROZEN v2.0.0 weights (sum to 100%): concentration 35%, dependence 30%, tariffExposure 20%, fxVolatility 15%. Pinned and versioned, never tuned to a result; rescaled over the available components when a family has no tracked currency.",
  "bands": "Below 35 resilient; 35 to 60 inclusive moderate; above 60 fragile.",
  "unit": "index, 0-100, higher = more fragile; sub-scores 0-100 on the same scale.",
  "scope": "An ILLUSTRATIVE composite, not an official statistic. Its value is a frozen, reproducible methodology: the same series, sub-scores, and weights every refresh, so the number is comparable over time and anyone can rebuild it from the cited public data. FX volatility is only available for families whose top source uses a tracked currency (euro, yuan, peso, Canadian dollar, or yen).",
  "source": "MFG Calcs Reshoring Index (effective tariff rate and import Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration) and Sourcing Diversification board (top source country and its import share), both over USITC DataWeb; plus FRED H.10 exchange rates for currency volatility. All public data.",
  "provenance": "Derived from public U.S. government trade and exchange-rate series and the site's own committed reshoring and sourcing aggregates. Redistributable.",
  "caveat": "Retained-source HHI omits the residual source tail in incomplete boards. Rows expose concentrationIsLowerBound and fragilityIsLowerBound; the headline exposes isLowerBound. A lower-bound band cannot rule out a higher fragility band after complete source coverage.",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "MFG Calcs (mfgcalcs.com)",
  "asOf": "2026-06"
}