{
  "version": "2.1.0",
  "asOf": "2026-06",
  "panelFamilies": 36,
  "stepMinPp": 1,
  "aftermathWindow": 6,
  "currentRate": 14.66,
  "episodeCount": 6,
  "increaseCount": 5,
  "decreaseCount": 1,
  "gradedCount": 4,
  "calendarContinuous": true,
  "rateHistory": [
    [
      "2014-01",
      1.08
    ],
    [
      "2014-02",
      1.02
    ],
    [
      "2014-03",
      1
    ],
    [
      "2014-04",
      1.01
    ],
    [
      "2014-05",
      1.01
    ],
    [
      "2014-06",
      1.02
    ],
    [
      "2014-07",
      1.01
    ],
    [
      "2014-08",
      1.04
    ],
    [
      "2014-09",
      1.02
    ],
    [
      "2014-10",
      1.03
    ],
    [
      "2014-11",
      1
    ],
    [
      "2014-12",
      1.02
    ],
    [
      "2015-01",
      1.01
    ],
    [
      "2015-02",
      0.98
    ],
    [
      "2015-03",
      1.1
    ],
    [
      "2015-04",
      1.05
    ],
    [
      "2015-05",
      1.06
    ],
    [
      "2015-06",
      1.02
    ],
    [
      "2015-07",
      1.05
    ],
    [
      "2015-08",
      1.07
    ],
    [
      "2015-09",
      1.04
    ],
    [
      "2015-10",
      1.05
    ],
    [
      "2015-11",
      1.03
    ],
    [
      "2015-12",
      1.05
    ],
    [
      "2016-01",
      1.07
    ],
    [
      "2016-02",
      1.08
    ],
    [
      "2016-03",
      1.01
    ],
    [
      "2016-04",
      1.02
    ],
    [
      "2016-05",
      1.04
    ],
    [
      "2016-06",
      1.01
    ],
    [
      "2016-07",
      1.04
    ],
    [
      "2016-08",
      1.03
    ],
    [
      "2016-09",
      1.03
    ],
    [
      "2016-10",
      1.03
    ],
    [
      "2016-11",
      1.01
    ],
    [
      "2016-12",
      1.03
    ],
    [
      "2017-01",
      1.05
    ],
    [
      "2017-02",
      1.01
    ],
    [
      "2017-03",
      0.97
    ],
    [
      "2017-04",
      1
    ],
    [
      "2017-05",
      1
    ],
    [
      "2017-06",
      0.98
    ],
    [
      "2017-07",
      1.02
    ],
    [
      "2017-08",
      1.02
    ],
    [
      "2017-09",
      1
    ],
    [
      "2017-10",
      1.03
    ],
    [
      "2017-11",
      1.01
    ],
    [
      "2017-12",
      1.03
    ],
    [
      "2018-01",
      1.05
    ],
    [
      "2018-02",
      1.03
    ],
    [
      "2018-03",
      1.05
    ],
    [
      "2018-04",
      1.26
    ],
    [
      "2018-05",
      1.52
    ],
    [
      "2018-06",
      2.82
    ],
    [
      "2018-07",
      3.47
    ],
    [
      "2018-08",
      3.54
    ],
    [
      "2018-09",
      3.65
    ],
    [
      "2018-10",
      4.33
    ],
    [
      "2018-11",
      4.37
    ],
    [
      "2018-12",
      4.43
    ],
    [
      "2019-01",
      4.39
    ],
    [
      "2019-02",
      3.69
    ],
    [
      "2019-03",
      3.55
    ],
    [
      "2019-04",
      3.69
    ],
    [
      "2019-05",
      3.57
    ],
    [
      "2019-06",
      3.75
    ],
    [
      "2019-07",
      3.83
    ],
    [
      "2019-08",
      3.75
    ],
    [
      "2019-09",
      3.87
    ],
    [
      "2019-10",
      3.83
    ],
    [
      "2019-11",
      3.66
    ],
    [
      "2019-12",
      3.81
    ],
    [
      "2020-01",
      3.98
    ],
    [
      "2020-02",
      3.38
    ],
    [
      "2020-03",
      2.95
    ],
    [
      "2020-04",
      4.24
    ],
    [
      "2020-05",
      4.58
    ],
    [
      "2020-06",
      3.92
    ],
    [
      "2020-07",
      4.01
    ],
    [
      "2020-08",
      4
    ],
    [
      "2020-09",
      3.99
    ],
    [
      "2020-10",
      3.96
    ],
    [
      "2020-11",
      3.95
    ],
    [
      "2020-12",
      4.03
    ],
    [
      "2021-01",
      4.26
    ],
    [
      "2021-02",
      4.16
    ],
    [
      "2021-03",
      4.19
    ],
    [
      "2021-04",
      3.9
    ],
    [
      "2021-05",
      4.13
    ],
    [
      "2021-06",
      4.21
    ],
    [
      "2021-07",
      4.24
    ],
    [
      "2021-08",
      4.52
    ],
    [
      "2021-09",
      4.39
    ],
    [
      "2021-10",
      4.34
    ],
    [
      "2021-11",
      4.46
    ],
    [
      "2021-12",
      4.57
    ],
    [
      "2022-01",
      4.59
    ],
    [
      "2022-02",
      4.25
    ],
    [
      "2022-03",
      4.14
    ],
    [
      "2022-04",
      4
    ],
    [
      "2022-05",
      3.89
    ],
    [
      "2022-06",
      3.99
    ],
    [
      "2022-07",
      3.97
    ],
    [
      "2022-08",
      4.19
    ],
    [
      "2022-09",
      4.03
    ],
    [
      "2022-10",
      3.79
    ],
    [
      "2022-11",
      3.75
    ],
    [
      "2022-12",
      3.67
    ],
    [
      "2023-01",
      3.6
    ],
    [
      "2023-02",
      3.36
    ],
    [
      "2023-03",
      3.21
    ],
    [
      "2023-04",
      3.41
    ],
    [
      "2023-05",
      3.35
    ],
    [
      "2023-06",
      3.31
    ],
    [
      "2023-07",
      3.36
    ],
    [
      "2023-08",
      3.28
    ],
    [
      "2023-09",
      3.3
    ],
    [
      "2023-10",
      3.31
    ],
    [
      "2023-11",
      3.12
    ],
    [
      "2023-12",
      3.4
    ],
    [
      "2024-01",
      3.49
    ],
    [
      "2024-02",
      3.33
    ],
    [
      "2024-03",
      3.21
    ],
    [
      "2024-04",
      3.26
    ],
    [
      "2024-05",
      3.36
    ],
    [
      "2024-06",
      3.48
    ],
    [
      "2024-07",
      3.57
    ],
    [
      "2024-08",
      3.51
    ],
    [
      "2024-09",
      3.49
    ],
    [
      "2024-10",
      3.25
    ],
    [
      "2024-11",
      3.45
    ],
    [
      "2024-12",
      3.73
    ],
    [
      "2025-01",
      3.85
    ],
    [
      "2025-02",
      3.73
    ],
    [
      "2025-03",
      6.73
    ],
    [
      "2025-04",
      11.59
    ],
    [
      "2025-05",
      14.59
    ],
    [
      "2025-06",
      14.88
    ],
    [
      "2025-07",
      16.03
    ],
    [
      "2025-08",
      18.34
    ],
    [
      "2025-09",
      19.92
    ],
    [
      "2025-10",
      19.95
    ],
    [
      "2025-11",
      19.4
    ],
    [
      "2025-12",
      18.6
    ],
    [
      "2026-01",
      19.74
    ],
    [
      "2026-02",
      17.53
    ],
    [
      "2026-03",
      15.1
    ],
    [
      "2026-04",
      14.65
    ],
    [
      "2026-05",
      14.96
    ],
    [
      "2026-06",
      14.66
    ]
  ],
  "episodes": [
    {
      "id": "2026-02",
      "startPeriod": "2026-02",
      "endPeriod": "2026-03",
      "direction": "decrease",
      "rateFrom": 19.74,
      "rateTo": 15.1,
      "stepPp": -4.64,
      "months": 2,
      "status": "accruing",
      "beforeMonths": 6,
      "afterMonths": 3,
      "beforeOverlapsPrevious": true,
      "afterOverlapsNext": false,
      "legalActionMatched": false,
      "seasonallyAdjusted": false,
      "importChangePct": null,
      "dutyChangePct": null
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-01",
      "startPeriod": "2026-01",
      "endPeriod": "2026-01",
      "direction": "increase",
      "rateFrom": 18.6,
      "rateTo": 19.74,
      "stepPp": 1.14,
      "months": 1,
      "status": "accruing",
      "beforeMonths": 6,
      "afterMonths": 5,
      "beforeOverlapsPrevious": true,
      "afterOverlapsNext": true,
      "legalActionMatched": false,
      "seasonallyAdjusted": false,
      "importChangePct": null,
      "dutyChangePct": null
    },
    {
      "id": "2025-07",
      "startPeriod": "2025-07",
      "endPeriod": "2025-09",
      "direction": "increase",
      "rateFrom": 14.88,
      "rateTo": 19.92,
      "stepPp": 5.04,
      "months": 3,
      "status": "graded",
      "beforeMonths": 6,
      "afterMonths": 6,
      "beforeOverlapsPrevious": true,
      "afterOverlapsNext": true,
      "legalActionMatched": false,
      "seasonallyAdjusted": false,
      "importChangePct": -8.4,
      "dutyChangePct": 82.8
    },
    {
      "id": "2025-03",
      "startPeriod": "2025-03",
      "endPeriod": "2025-05",
      "direction": "increase",
      "rateFrom": 3.73,
      "rateTo": 14.59,
      "stepPp": 10.86,
      "months": 3,
      "status": "graded",
      "beforeMonths": 6,
      "afterMonths": 6,
      "beforeOverlapsPrevious": false,
      "afterOverlapsNext": true,
      "legalActionMatched": false,
      "seasonallyAdjusted": false,
      "importChangePct": -3.1,
      "dutyChangePct": 387.4
    },
    {
      "id": "2020-04",
      "startPeriod": "2020-04",
      "endPeriod": "2020-04",
      "direction": "increase",
      "rateFrom": 2.95,
      "rateTo": 4.24,
      "stepPp": 1.29,
      "months": 1,
      "status": "graded",
      "beforeMonths": 6,
      "afterMonths": 6,
      "beforeOverlapsPrevious": false,
      "afterOverlapsNext": false,
      "legalActionMatched": false,
      "seasonallyAdjusted": false,
      "importChangePct": -11.6,
      "dutyChangePct": -0.4
    },
    {
      "id": "2018-06",
      "startPeriod": "2018-06",
      "endPeriod": "2018-06",
      "direction": "increase",
      "rateFrom": 1.52,
      "rateTo": 2.82,
      "stepPp": 1.3,
      "months": 1,
      "status": "graded",
      "beforeMonths": 6,
      "afterMonths": 6,
      "beforeOverlapsPrevious": false,
      "afterOverlapsNext": false,
      "legalActionMatched": false,
      "seasonallyAdjusted": false,
      "importChangePct": 3.6,
      "dutyChangePct": 252.2
    }
  ],
  "methodology": {
    "name": "MFG Calcs Observed Effective-Rate Movement Ledger",
    "slug": "us-manufacturing-tariff-action-ledger",
    "version": "2.1.0",
    "url": "https://www.mfgcalcs.com/signals/tariff-action-ledger",
    "formula": "A chronological record of every statistical episode in which the monthly manufacturing effective calculated-duty rate stepped by at least 1 percentage point month over month (consecutive same-direction steps merge into one episode). For each episode with complete windows, the change in import customs value and in USITC reported Calculated Duties is measured over exactly 6 calendar months after the episode against exactly 6 months before. Episodes with fewer than 6 after-months are marked accruing, report afterMonths as the available count, and keep both comparison values null until the full window exists. Episodes with fewer than 6 prior months are marked insufficient-history and are never graded.",
    "unit": "rates in percent; rate moves in percentage points; import and duty changes in percent.",
    "scope": "An ASSOCIATION, not a causal or legal-action claim. Episodes are detected from the effective-rate series and are not matched to statutes, proclamations, exclusions, or effective dates. The series is not seasonally adjusted. Import customs value is a dollar figure that moves for many reasons at once (demand, prices, seasonality, other policy), so a change can be price or quantity and cannot be attributed to the tariff alone. The beforeOverlapsPrevious and afterOverlapsNext fields identify comparisons whose windows contain another detected rate movement. Read what happened after each move, not why.",
    "source": "MFG Calcs monthly effective-rate aggregate over USITC DataWeb (public data).",
    "provenance": "Derived from the committed effective-rate aggregate; the git history is the timestamp. Redistributable.",
    "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "attribution": "MFG Calcs (mfgcalcs.com)",
    "asOf": "2026-06"
  }
}