Advanced Technical Ceramics worked example

Technical Ceramic Supplier Risk with supply impact severity if it fails of 23 1-10: a worked example

What does the result look like when supply impact severity if it fails reaches 23 1-10? The full calculation is worked below with real intermediate numbers. a purchasing manager needs to compare supplier risk for critical ceramic materials or outsourced processing

The inputs for this scenario

  • Supply impact severity if it fails: 23 1-10 (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 9)
  • Likelihood of supply disruption: 5 1-10 (unchanged)
  • Difficulty detecting or recovering: 7 1-10 (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Technical ceramic supplier risk score = severity score × likelihood score × detection difficulty score) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 12.7 score for technical ceramic supplier risk score, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 23 1-10 for supply impact severity.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 5 1-10 for disruption likelihood.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 7 1-10 for detection or recovery difficulty.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where supply impact severity if it fails sits at 9 1-10 and the headline result is 7.1 score, this scenario comes in 78.87% above the baseline at 12.7 score.
  • A figure at this level is achievable when supply impact severity if it fails is genuinely sustained, not just peaked for a shift. It's an ordinal, subjective score — a 9x5x7 isn't literally three times riskier than a 9x5x2.3, so use it to rank and trigger action, not as an absolute probability.

Results at a glance

  • Technical ceramic supplier risk score: 12.7 score (headline result)
  • Supply impact severity: 23 1-10
  • Disruption likelihood: 5 1-10
  • Detection or recovery difficulty: 7 1-10

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Technical Ceramic Supplier Risk calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.