Aerospace & Defense Manufacturing worked example

Aerospace Escape Probability Screen at 99% detection or containment effectiveness: a worked example

What does the result look like when detection or containment effectiveness reaches 99%? The full calculation is worked below with real intermediate numbers. a quality engineer needs to estimate how many defects could escape after inspection or containment controls

The inputs for this scenario

  • Aerospace defect opportunities: 1,250 items (unchanged)
  • Expected escape opportunity rate: 0.02 escapes/item (unchanged)
  • Detection or containment effectiveness: 99 % (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 96)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Theoretical escape opportunities = defect opportunities × expected escape opportunity rate) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 22.73 potential escapes for estimated residual escape quantity, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 22.5 potential escapes for theoretical escape opportunities.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 0.23 potential escapes for escapes prevented by controls.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 99 % for detection or containment effectiveness.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where detection or containment effectiveness sits at 96% and the headline result is 23.44 potential escapes, this scenario comes in 3.03% below the baseline at 22.73 potential escapes.
  • A figure at this level is achievable when detection or containment effectiveness is genuinely sustained, not just peaked for a shift. It is a screening estimate built on an assumed escape rate and a single effectiveness figure; it does not replace measured defect data, FMEA, or a formal containment study.

Results at a glance

  • Estimated residual escape quantity: 22.73 potential escapes (headline result)
  • Theoretical escape opportunities: 22.5 potential escapes
  • Escapes prevented by controls: 0.23 potential escapes
  • Detection or containment effectiveness: 99 %

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Aerospace Escape Probability Screen calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.