Aerospace & Defense Manufacturing worked example

Aerospace Escape Probability Screen at 69% detection or containment effectiveness: a worked example

This worked example runs the aerospace escape probability screen numbers for a tougher week than the baseline: 69% detection or containment effectiveness instead of the typical 96%. Estimate residual escape quantity from opportunities for defects, escape rate per item, and detection effectiveness.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Aerospace defect opportunities: 1,250 items (held at the documented default)
  • Expected escape opportunity rate: 0.02 escapes/item (held at the documented default)
  • Detection or containment effectiveness: 69 % (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 96)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Theoretical escape opportunities = defect opportunities × expected escape opportunity rate.
  • Estimated residual escape quantity works out to 32.61 potential escapes at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Theoretical escape opportunities works out to 22.5 potential escapes at these inputs.
  • Escapes prevented by controls works out to 10.11 potential escapes at these inputs.
  • Detection or containment effectiveness works out to 69 % at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where detection or containment effectiveness sits at 96% and the headline result is 23.44 potential escapes, this scenario comes in 39.13% above the baseline at 32.61 potential escapes.
  • Use it to screen a lot, process, or program for likely escapes before release and to size the gap your controls leave open. A result at this level usually justifies acting on the stressed input before touching anything else, because every other figure in the table is downstream of it.

Results at a glance

  • Estimated residual escape quantity: 32.61 potential escapes (headline result)
  • Theoretical escape opportunities: 22.5 potential escapes
  • Escapes prevented by controls: 10.11 potential escapes
  • Detection or containment effectiveness: 69 %

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Aerospace Escape Probability Screen calculator, set detection or containment effectiveness to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.