Building Materials Manufacturing worked example

Ceramic Shrinkage with shrinkage severity for the ceramic body or part of 18 score: a worked example

What does the result look like when shrinkage severity for the ceramic body or part reaches 18 score? The full calculation is worked below with real intermediate numbers. a ceramic plant is reviewing shrinkage risk for a body, glaze, firing schedule, or product family

The inputs for this scenario

  • Shrinkage severity for the ceramic body or part: 18 score (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 7)
  • Shrinkage occurrence from recent firing history: 5 score (unchanged)
  • Shrinkage detection confidence before shipment: 6 score (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Ceramic Shrinkage = severity × occurrence × detection) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 10.45 shrinkage risk score for ceramic shrinkage, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 18 score for shrinkage severity for the ceramic body or part.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 5 score for shrinkage occurrence from recent firing history.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 6 score for shrinkage detection confidence before shipment.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where shrinkage severity for the ceramic body or part sits at 7 score and the headline result is 6.05 shrinkage risk score, this scenario comes in 72.73% above the baseline at 10.45 shrinkage risk score.
  • A figure at this level is achievable when shrinkage severity for the ceramic body or part is genuinely sustained, not just peaked for a shift. RPN is an ordinal ranking tool, not a physical shrinkage percentage — a score of 6.05 does not mean 6.05% linear shrinkage.

Results at a glance

  • Ceramic Shrinkage: 10.45 shrinkage risk score (headline result)
  • Shrinkage severity for the ceramic body or part: 18 score
  • Shrinkage occurrence from recent firing history: 5 score
  • Shrinkage detection confidence before shipment: 6 score

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Ceramic Shrinkage calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.