Contract Manufacturing, Job Shop Quoting & Make-to-Order worked example

Prototype Quote at 98% prototype quote confidence: a worked example

Push prototype quote confidence up to 98% and the picture changes. This example computes every intermediate figure at that operating point. quoting prototypes, samples, development lots, or first articles before production pricing is known

The inputs for this scenario

  • Prototype cost per unit: 420 $ / unit (unchanged)
  • Prototype units requested: 12 units (unchanged)
  • Prototype quote confidence: 98 % (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 85)
  • Expected prototype build yield: 75 % (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (gross prototype quote value before risk = prototype cost per unit × prototype units requested) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 3,704 $ for expected prototype quote value, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 5,040 $ for gross prototype quote value before risk.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 101 $ for prototype value at risk from unclear scope.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 1,235 $ for prototype value at risk from build fallout.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where prototype quote confidence sits at 85% and the headline result is 3,213 $, this scenario comes in 15.29% above the baseline at 3,704 $.
  • It computes the expected value of a prototype quote by scaling the gross quote down for scope confidence and expected build yield, and reports the value at risk from each. The value of this scenario is the size of the gap it exposes: that gap, priced out over a year, is the budget you can justify spending to close it.

Results at a glance

  • expected prototype quote value: 3,704 $ (headline result)
  • gross prototype quote value before risk: 5,040 $
  • prototype value at risk from unclear scope: 101 $
  • prototype value at risk from build fallout: 1,235 $

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Prototype Quote calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.