Why multiply by both confidence and yield?

They answer different questions. Confidence discounts scope you may never get paid for, while yield discounts parts you build again at your own cost. Keeping them apart shows which risk to attack first.

Where does prototype quote confidence come from?

From how often prototype scopes changed after you quoted, tracked in your quote log. If most prototypes ship with customer revisions, a value below the 85% default is realistic.

What counts as build fallout on a prototype?

Parts that fail inspection, need rework or are scrapped while proving the process. On a first article even a small fallout rate is costly because every unit carries the setup and programming.

Should a prototype quote include tooling cost?

Only if the customer pays for it separately. This model values the units quoted, so add one-time tooling, fixtures and programming as separate lines and keep their risk visible.

Contract Manufacturing, Job Shop Quoting & Make-to-Order calculator

Expected Prototype Quote Value Calculator

Work out what a prototype quote is really worth before quoting a fixed price. You need cost per unit, units requested, how firm the scope is and the build yield you expect.

What this calculator does

Expected value of a prototype quote after scope confidence and build yield, with the dollars at risk in each.

Formula used

Gross quote value = prototype cost per unit × prototype units requested
Expected quote value = gross quote value × quote confidence × build yield
Value at risk from unclear scope = gross quote value × (1 − quote confidence)
Value at risk from build fallout = gross quote value × quote confidence × (1 − build yield)

Inputs explained

Prototype Cost per Unit: Quoted prototype cost for one unit, from the estimate.
Prototype Units Requested: Units the customer asks for in the prototype order.
Quote Confidence: Share of the prototype scope you can price without later changes.
Build Yield: Good prototype units divided by units started on similar first articles.

How to use the result

Best suited to pricing a prototype or first article, deciding how much contingency to hold.
Treats both factors as steady, though a first article often reveals scope the quote missed. Ignores tooling deposits, freight and the value of learning the part for production.

Current U.S. benchmarks

The U.S. prime lending rate is 7.00% (Federal Reserve via FRED, 2026-10-02). Payback and financing math should start from today's rate, not a remembered one.

Common questions

Why multiply by both confidence and yield? They answer different questions. Confidence discounts scope you may never get paid for, while yield discounts parts you build again at your own cost. Keeping them apart shows which risk to attack first.
Where does prototype quote confidence come from? From how often prototype scopes changed after you quoted, tracked in your quote log. If most prototypes ship with customer revisions, a value below the 85% default is realistic.
What counts as build fallout on a prototype? Parts that fail inspection, need rework or are scrapped while proving the process. On a first article even a small fallout rate is costly because every unit carries the setup and programming.
Should a prototype quote include tooling cost? Only if the customer pays for it separately. This model values the units quoted, so add one-time tooling, fixtures and programming as separate lines and keep their risk visible.

Last reviewed 2026-10-01.