Industrial Cybersecurity & OT Risk worked example

OT Cyber Downtime Probability at 14% expected likelihood or occurrence share: a worked example

Push expected likelihood or occurrence share up to 14% and the picture changes. This example computes every intermediate figure at that operating point. Use it when converting downtime scenarios into annualized risk exposure for leadership or investment reviews.

The inputs for this scenario

  • OT cyber downtime scenario units: 24 units (unchanged)
  • Cost per downtime scenario unit: 18,000 $ / unit (unchanged)
  • Expected likelihood or occurrence share: 14 % (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 12)
  • Fixed readiness and risk review cost: 40,000 $ (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Probability weighted OT cyber downtime exposure = OT cyber downtime scenario units × cost per downtime scenario unit × expected likelihood or occurrence share) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 100,480 $ for total ot cyber downtime probability cost, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 4,187 $ / unit for cost per downtime scenario unit.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 60,480 $ for probability weighted ot cyber downtime exposure.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 40,000 $ for fixed readiness and risk review cost.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where expected likelihood or occurrence share sits at 12% and the headline result is 91,840 $, this scenario comes in 9.41% above the baseline at 100,480 $.
  • It computes a probability-weighted expected loss from an OT cyber outage and adds the fixed readiness cost to give a single total exposure figure. The value of this scenario is the size of the gap it exposes: that gap, priced out over a year, is the budget you can justify spending to close it.

Results at a glance

  • Total OT cyber downtime probability cost: 100,480 $ (headline result)
  • Cost per downtime scenario unit: 4,187 $ / unit
  • Probability weighted OT cyber downtime exposure: 60,480 $
  • Fixed readiness and risk review cost: 40,000 $

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live OT Cyber Downtime Probability calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.