Industrial Cybersecurity & OT Risk worked example

OT Cyber Downtime Probability at 8.64% expected likelihood or occurrence share: a worked example

Suppose expected likelihood or occurrence share falls to 8.64%. This page works the full calculation at that level so you can see exactly which result moves and by how much. Estimate probability weighted OT cyber downtime exposure using downtime scenarios, cost per scenario, likelihood, and fixed readiness costs.

The inputs for this scenario

  • OT cyber downtime scenario units: 24 units (held at the documented default)
  • Cost per downtime scenario unit: 18,000 $ / unit (held at the documented default)
  • Expected likelihood or occurrence share: 8.64 % (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 12)
  • Fixed readiness and risk review cost: 40,000 $ (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Probability weighted OT cyber downtime exposure = OT cyber downtime scenario units × cost per downtime scenario unit × expected likelihood or occurrence share.
  • Total OT cyber downtime probability cost works out to 77,325 $ at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Cost per downtime scenario unit works out to 3,222 $ / unit at these inputs.
  • Probability weighted OT cyber downtime exposure works out to 37,325 $ at these inputs.
  • Fixed readiness and risk review cost works out to 40,000 $ at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where expected likelihood or occurrence share sits at 12% and the headline result is 91,840 $, this scenario comes in 15.8% below the baseline at 77,325 $.
  • It computes a probability-weighted expected loss from an OT cyber outage and adds the fixed readiness cost to give a single total exposure figure. When the numbers land here, the stressed input is the lever to work; the walkthrough above shows exactly how much each output recovers as it climbs back toward the baseline.

Results at a glance

  • Total OT cyber downtime probability cost: 77,325 $ (headline result)
  • Cost per downtime scenario unit: 3,222 $ / unit
  • Probability weighted OT cyber downtime exposure: 37,325 $
  • Fixed readiness and risk review cost: 40,000 $

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live OT Cyber Downtime Probability calculator, set expected likelihood or occurrence share to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.