Make-Buy, Outsourcing & Network Design worked example

Capacity Outsourcing Gap with severity of unmet demand if the gap goes uncovered of 15 score: a worked example

What does the result look like when severity of unmet demand if the gap goes uncovered reaches 15 score? The full calculation is worked below with real intermediate numbers. Use it when capacity outsourcing gap in make-buy, outsourcing and network design needs a defensible ranking against other make-buy, outsourcing and network design risks for the next review.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Severity of unmet demand if the gap goes uncovered: 15 score (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 6)
  • Likelihood the capacity shortfall occurs: 4 score (unchanged)
  • Ability to detect the gap before it bites: 3 score (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Capacity outsourcing gap risk score = capacity outsourcing gap severity score × capacity outsourcing gap occurrence score × capacity outsourcing gap detection score) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 8.15 score for capacity outsourcing gap risk score, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 15 score for capacity outsourcing gap severity score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 4 score for capacity outsourcing gap occurrence score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 3 score for capacity outsourcing gap detection score.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where severity of unmet demand if the gap goes uncovered sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 79.12% above the baseline at 8.15 score.
  • A figure at this level is achievable when severity of unmet demand if the gap goes uncovered is genuinely sustained, not just peaked for a shift. Multiplying ordinal scores means an RPN can't be averaged or treated as linear — a 60 isn't twice as risky as a 30, and equal RPNs can hide very different severity profiles, so always inspect the components.

Results at a glance

  • Capacity outsourcing gap risk score: 8.15 score (headline result)
  • Capacity outsourcing gap severity score: 15 score
  • Capacity outsourcing gap occurrence score: 4 score
  • Capacity outsourcing gap detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Capacity Outsourcing Gap calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.