Make-Buy, Outsourcing & Network Design worked example

Supplier Capacity Risk with impact on your line if the supplier runs short of 15 score: a worked example

This scenario runs the supplier capacity risk calculation on the strong side: impact on your line if the supplier runs short of 15 score, with every other input held at its documented default. Use it when supplier capacity risk in make-buy, outsourcing and network design needs a defensible ranking against other make-buy, outsourcing and network design risks for the next review.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Impact on your line if the supplier runs short (1-10): 15 score (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 6)
  • Likelihood the supplier hits a capacity ceiling (1-10): 4 score (unchanged)
  • Difficulty seeing the shortfall before it hits (1-10): 3 score (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Supplier capacity risk score = supplier capacity risk severity score × supplier capacity risk occurrence score × supplier capacity risk detection score) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 8.15 score for supplier capacity risk score, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 15 score for supplier capacity risk severity score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 4 score for supplier capacity risk occurrence score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 3 score for supplier capacity risk detection score.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where impact on your line if the supplier runs short sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 79.12% above the baseline at 8.15 score.
  • Use it during sourcing, annual supplier reviews, or when demand is forecast to jump and you need to find the suppliers most likely to bottleneck. Treat this as a target state: the delta against the baseline quantifies what the improvement is worth before you commit to chasing it.

Results at a glance

  • Supplier capacity risk score: 8.15 score (headline result)
  • Supplier capacity risk severity score: 15 score
  • Supplier capacity risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Supplier capacity risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Supplier Capacity Risk calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.