Make-Buy, Outsourcing & Network Design worked example

Supplier Capacity Risk with impact on your line if the supplier runs short of 3 score: a worked example

Suppose impact on your line if the supplier runs short falls to 3 score. This page works the full calculation at that level so you can see exactly which result moves and by how much. Estimate supplier capacity risk for make-buy, outsourcing and network design using production-ready inputs so teams can rank risks and decide which issue needs containment, controls, or escalation first.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Impact on your line if the supplier runs short (1-10): 3 score (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 6)
  • Likelihood the supplier hits a capacity ceiling (1-10): 4 score (held at the documented default)
  • Difficulty seeing the shortfall before it hits (1-10): 3 score (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Supplier capacity risk score = supplier capacity risk severity score × supplier capacity risk occurrence score × supplier capacity risk detection score.
  • Supplier capacity risk score works out to 3.35 score at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Supplier capacity risk severity score works out to 3 score at these inputs.
  • Supplier capacity risk occurrence score works out to 4 score at these inputs.
  • Supplier capacity risk detection score works out to 3 score at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where impact on your line if the supplier runs short sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 26.37% below the baseline at 3.35 score.
  • It multiplies the impact, likelihood and visibility scores of a supplier capacity shortfall into a single Risk Priority Number. When the numbers land here, the stressed input is the lever to work; the walkthrough above shows exactly how much each output recovers as it climbs back toward the baseline.

Results at a glance

  • Supplier capacity risk score: 3.35 score (headline result)
  • Supplier capacity risk severity score: 3 score
  • Supplier capacity risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Supplier capacity risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Supplier Capacity Risk calculator, set impact on your line if the supplier runs short to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.