Manufacturing Project Portfolio & Capex worked example

Project Portfolio Value at 81% delivery confidence: a worked example

Push delivery confidence up to 81% and the picture changes. This example computes every intermediate figure at that operating point. A capex portfolio owner sizing the realistic value of an active project slate for an investment review.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Active projects in the portfolio: 22 projects (unchanged)
  • Average value per project: 180,000 $/project (unchanged)
  • Delivery confidence (probability-weighting): 81 % (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 70)
  • Fixed portfolio / PMO overhead: 120,000 $ (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Portfolio value = active projects x average project value x delivery confidence + portfolio overhead) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 3,327,600 $ for total project portfolio value cost, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 151,255 $ / piece for project portfolio value cost per unit.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 3,207,600 $ for variable project portfolio value cost.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 120,000 $ for fixed project portfolio value adder.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where delivery confidence sits at 70% and the headline result is 2,892,000 $, this scenario comes in 15.06% above the baseline at 3,327,600 $.
  • It computes total risk-adjusted portfolio value as active projects times average value times delivery confidence, plus fixed overhead, and divides by project count for value per project. The value of this scenario is the size of the gap it exposes: that gap, priced out over a year, is the budget you can justify spending to close it.

Results at a glance

  • Total project portfolio value cost: 3,327,600 $ (headline result)
  • Project portfolio value cost per unit: 151,255 $ / piece
  • Variable project portfolio value cost: 3,207,600 $
  • Fixed project portfolio value adder: 120,000 $

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Project Portfolio Value calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.