Manufacturing Project Portfolio & Capex worked example

Project Portfolio Value at 50% delivery confidence: a worked example

Suppose delivery confidence falls to 50%. This page works the full calculation at that level so you can see exactly which result moves and by how much. Estimate the risk-adjusted value of a manufacturing project portfolio after delivery confidence and overhead.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Active projects in the portfolio: 22 projects (held at the documented default)
  • Average value per project: 180,000 $/project (held at the documented default)
  • Delivery confidence (probability-weighting): 50 % (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 70)
  • Fixed portfolio / PMO overhead: 120,000 $ (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Portfolio value = active projects x average project value x delivery confidence + portfolio overhead.
  • Total project portfolio value cost works out to 2,100,000 $ at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Project portfolio value cost per unit works out to 95,455 $ / piece at these inputs.
  • Variable project portfolio value cost works out to 1,980,000 $ at these inputs.
  • Fixed project portfolio value adder works out to 120,000 $ at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where delivery confidence sits at 70% and the headline result is 2,892,000 $, this scenario comes in 27.39% below the baseline at 2,100,000 $.
  • It computes total risk-adjusted portfolio value as active projects times average value times delivery confidence, plus fixed overhead, and divides by project count for value per project. When the numbers land here, the stressed input is the lever to work; the walkthrough above shows exactly how much each output recovers as it climbs back toward the baseline.

Results at a glance

  • Total project portfolio value cost: 2,100,000 $ (headline result)
  • Project portfolio value cost per unit: 95,455 $ / piece
  • Variable project portfolio value cost: 1,980,000 $
  • Fixed project portfolio value adder: 120,000 $

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Project Portfolio Value calculator, set delivery confidence to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.