Manufacturing Project Portfolio & Capex worked example

Project Risk Score with impact severity if risk occurs of 15 score: a worked example

Push impact severity if risk occurs up to 15 score and the picture changes. This example computes every intermediate figure at that operating point. Use it when project risk in manufacturing project portfolio and capex needs a defensible ranking against other manufacturing project portfolio and capex risks for the next review.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Impact severity if risk occurs (1-10): 15 score (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 6)
  • Probability of occurrence (1-10): 4 score (unchanged)
  • Difficulty of early detection (1-10): 3 score (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Project risk score = project risk severity score × project risk occurrence score × project risk detection score) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 8.15 score for project risk score, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 15 score for project risk severity score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 4 score for project risk occurrence score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 3 score for project risk detection score.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where impact severity if risk occurs sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 79.12% above the baseline at 8.15 score.
  • It multiplies a risk's impact, probability, and detection difficulty into a single project risk score for ranking a risk register. The value of this scenario is the size of the gap it exposes: that gap, priced out over a year, is the budget you can justify spending to close it.

Results at a glance

  • Project risk score: 8.15 score (headline result)
  • Project risk severity score: 15 score
  • Project risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Project risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Project Risk Score calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.