Manufacturing Project Portfolio & Capex worked example

Project Risk Score with impact severity if risk occurs of 3 score: a worked example

This worked example runs the project risk score numbers for a tougher week than the baseline: impact severity if risk occurs of 3 score instead of the typical 6 score. Estimate project risk for manufacturing project portfolio and capex using production-ready inputs so teams can rank risks and decide which issue needs containment, controls, or escalation first.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Impact severity if risk occurs (1-10): 3 score (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 6)
  • Probability of occurrence (1-10): 4 score (held at the documented default)
  • Difficulty of early detection (1-10): 3 score (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Project risk score = project risk severity score × project risk occurrence score × project risk detection score.
  • Project risk score works out to 3.35 score at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Project risk severity score works out to 3 score at these inputs.
  • Project risk occurrence score works out to 4 score at these inputs.
  • Project risk detection score works out to 3 score at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where impact severity if risk occurs sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 26.37% below the baseline at 3.35 score.
  • Use it at project kickoff and every gate review to re-rank open risks and target mitigation. A result at this level usually justifies acting on the stressed input before touching anything else, because every other figure in the table is downstream of it.

Results at a glance

  • Project risk score: 3.35 score (headline result)
  • Project risk severity score: 3 score
  • Project risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Project risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Project Risk Score calculator, set impact severity if risk occurs to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.