Refractories, Furnace Linings & Foundry Consumables worked example

Thermal Loss Estimate with heat-loss severity of 15 score: a worked example

What does the result look like when heat-loss severity reaches 15 score? The full calculation is worked below with real intermediate numbers. Use it when thermal loss estimate in refractories, furnace linings and foundry consumables needs a defensible ranking against other refractories, furnace linings and foundry consumables risks for the next review.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Heat-loss severity (impact if it occurs): 15 score (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 6)
  • Heat-loss occurrence (how often it happens): 4 score (unchanged)
  • Heat-loss detection difficulty (how hard to catch early): 3 score (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Thermal Loss Estimate risk score = severity × 0.40 + occurrence × 0.35 + detection × 0.25) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 8.15 score for risk score, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 15 score for severity.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 4 score for occurrence.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 3 score for detection.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where heat-loss severity sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 79.12% above the baseline at 8.15 score.
  • A figure at this level is achievable when heat-loss severity is genuinely sustained, not just peaked for a shift. Scores are only as good as the human ratings behind them — two engineers scoring the same worn wall differently will produce different risk numbers, so calibrate your 1-10 scale before comparing furnaces.

Results at a glance

  • Risk score: 8.15 score (headline result)
  • Severity: 15 score
  • Occurrence: 4 score
  • Detection: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Thermal Loss Estimate calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.