Refractories, Furnace Linings & Foundry Consumables worked example

Thermal Loss Estimate with heat-loss severity of 3 score: a worked example

This worked example runs the thermal loss estimate numbers for a tougher week than the baseline: heat-loss severity of 3 score instead of the typical 6 score. The Thermal Loss Estimate risk score turns three subjective ratings — how bad a heat-loss event is, how often it happens, and how hard it is to catch before it escalates — into a single weighted number a furnace engineer can rank against every other lining risk.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Heat-loss severity (impact if it occurs): 3 score (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 6)
  • Heat-loss occurrence (how often it happens): 4 score (held at the documented default)
  • Heat-loss detection difficulty (how hard to catch early): 3 score (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Thermal Loss Estimate risk score = severity × 0.40 + occurrence × 0.35 + detection × 0.25.
  • Risk score works out to 3.35 score at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Severity works out to 3 score at these inputs.
  • Occurrence works out to 4 score at these inputs.
  • Detection works out to 3 score at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where heat-loss severity sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 26.37% below the baseline at 3.35 score.
  • Use it during refractory inspections, thermal audits, or campaign-end reviews to rank which heat-loss modes to fix first. A result at this level usually justifies acting on the stressed input before touching anything else, because every other figure in the table is downstream of it.

Results at a glance

  • Risk score: 3.35 score (headline result)
  • Severity: 3 score
  • Occurrence: 4 score
  • Detection: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Thermal Loss Estimate calculator, set heat-loss severity to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.