S&OP, Demand Planning & Forecasting worked example

Stockout Risk with stockout severity of 15 score: a worked example

This scenario runs the stockout risk calculation on the strong side: stockout severity of 15 score, with every other input held at its documented default. Use it when stockout risk in s and op, demand planning and forecasting needs a defensible ranking against other s and op, demand planning and forecasting risks for the next review.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Stockout Severity (impact if it happens): 15 score (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 6)
  • Stockout Occurrence (how likely): 4 score (unchanged)
  • Stockout Detection (how visible beforehand): 3 score (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Stockout risk score = stockout risk severity score × stockout risk occurrence score × stockout risk detection score) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 8.15 score for stockout risk score, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 15 score for stockout risk severity score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 4 score for stockout risk occurrence score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 3 score for stockout risk detection score.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where stockout severity sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 79.12% above the baseline at 8.15 score.
  • Use it when triaging a catalog of parts or SKUs for safety-stock investment, supplier redundancy, or heightened monitoring during an S&OP risk review. Treat this as a target state: the delta against the baseline quantifies what the improvement is worth before you commit to chasing it.

Results at a glance

  • Stockout risk score: 8.15 score (headline result)
  • Stockout risk severity score: 15 score
  • Stockout risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Stockout risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Stockout Risk calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.