S&OP, Demand Planning & Forecasting worked example

Stockout Risk with stockout severity of 3 score: a worked example

This worked example runs the stockout risk numbers for a tougher week than the baseline: stockout severity of 3 score instead of the typical 6 score. Estimate stockout risk for sandop, demand planning and forecasting using production-ready inputs so teams can rank risks and decide which issue needs containment, controls, or escalation first.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Stockout Severity (impact if it happens): 3 score (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 6)
  • Stockout Occurrence (how likely): 4 score (held at the documented default)
  • Stockout Detection (how visible beforehand): 3 score (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Stockout risk score = stockout risk severity score × stockout risk occurrence score × stockout risk detection score.
  • Stockout risk score works out to 3.35 score at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Stockout risk severity score works out to 3 score at these inputs.
  • Stockout risk occurrence score works out to 4 score at these inputs.
  • Stockout risk detection score works out to 3 score at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where stockout severity sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 26.37% below the baseline at 3.35 score.
  • Use it when triaging a catalog of parts or SKUs for safety-stock investment, supplier redundancy, or heightened monitoring during an S&OP risk review. A result at this level usually justifies acting on the stressed input before touching anything else, because every other figure in the table is downstream of it.

Results at a glance

  • Stockout risk score: 3.35 score (headline result)
  • Stockout risk severity score: 3 score
  • Stockout risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Stockout risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Stockout Risk calculator, set stockout severity to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.