Training, Certification & Skills Compliance worked example

Expired Certification Risk with severity if the expired certification causes an incident of 15 score: a worked example

Push severity if the expired certification causes an incident up to 15 score and the picture changes. This example computes every intermediate figure at that operating point. Use it when expired certification risk in training, certification and skills compliance needs a defensible ranking against other training, certification and skills compliance risks for the next review.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Severity if the expired certification causes an incident: 15 score (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 6)
  • Likelihood a certification lapses undetected: 4 score (unchanged)
  • Ability to detect the lapse before work proceeds: 3 score (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Expired certification risk score = expired certification risk severity score × expired certification risk occurrence score × expired certification risk detection score) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 8.15 score for expired certification risk score, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 15 score for expired certification risk severity score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 4 score for expired certification risk occurrence score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 3 score for expired certification risk detection score.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where severity if the expired certification causes an incident sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 79.12% above the baseline at 8.15 score.
  • It multiplies severity, occurrence, and detection scores into a single risk priority number for a lapsed or expiring certification. The value of this scenario is the size of the gap it exposes: that gap, priced out over a year, is the budget you can justify spending to close it.

Results at a glance

  • Expired certification risk score: 8.15 score (headline result)
  • Expired certification risk severity score: 15 score
  • Expired certification risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Expired certification risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Expired Certification Risk calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.