Training, Certification & Skills Compliance worked example

Expired Certification Risk with severity if the expired certification causes an incident of 3 score: a worked example

This worked example runs the expired certification risk numbers for a tougher week than the baseline: severity if the expired certification causes an incident of 3 score instead of the typical 6 score. Estimate expired certification risk for training, certification and skills compliance using production-ready inputs so teams can rank risks and decide which issue needs containment, controls, or escalation first.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Severity if the expired certification causes an incident: 3 score (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 6)
  • Likelihood a certification lapses undetected: 4 score (held at the documented default)
  • Ability to detect the lapse before work proceeds: 3 score (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Expired certification risk score = expired certification risk severity score × expired certification risk occurrence score × expired certification risk detection score.
  • Expired certification risk score works out to 3.35 score at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Expired certification risk severity score works out to 3 score at these inputs.
  • Expired certification risk occurrence score works out to 4 score at these inputs.
  • Expired certification risk detection score works out to 3 score at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where severity if the expired certification causes an incident sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 26.37% below the baseline at 3.35 score.
  • Use it to triage a backlog of expired certifications, prioritize renewal spend, or feed a management-of-change review before letting a lapsed operator resume work. A result at this level usually justifies acting on the stressed input before touching anything else, because every other figure in the table is downstream of it.

Results at a glance

  • Expired certification risk score: 3.35 score (headline result)
  • Expired certification risk severity score: 3 score
  • Expired certification risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Expired certification risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Expired Certification Risk calculator, set severity if the expired certification causes an incident to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.