Tunnel Boring & Heavy Civil Equipment worked example

Supplier Long-Lead Risk with long-lead item impact severity of 15 score: a worked example

Push long-lead item impact severity up to 15 score and the picture changes. This example computes every intermediate figure at that operating point. Use it when supplier long-lead risk in tunnel boring and heavy civil equipment needs a defensible ranking against other tunnel boring and heavy civil equipment risks for the next review.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Long-Lead Item Impact Severity (1-10): 15 score (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 6)
  • Late-Delivery Likelihood (1-10): 4 score (unchanged)
  • Early-Warning Detectability (1-10): 3 score (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Supplier long-lead risk score = supplier long-lead risk severity score × supplier long-lead risk occurrence score × supplier long-lead risk detection score) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 8.15 score for supplier long-lead risk score, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 15 score for supplier long-lead risk severity score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 4 score for supplier long-lead risk occurrence score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 3 score for supplier long-lead risk detection score.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where long-lead item impact severity sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 79.12% above the baseline at 8.15 score.
  • It multiplies severity, occurrence, and detection scores into a single supplier long-lead risk priority number for ranking critical procurement items. The value of this scenario is the size of the gap it exposes: that gap, priced out over a year, is the budget you can justify spending to close it.

Results at a glance

  • Supplier long-lead risk score: 8.15 score (headline result)
  • Supplier long-lead risk severity score: 15 score
  • Supplier long-lead risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Supplier long-lead risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Supplier Long-Lead Risk calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.