Tunnel Boring & Heavy Civil Equipment worked example

Supplier Long-Lead Risk with long-lead item impact severity of 3 score: a worked example

Here is what the math looks like when conditions slip. We hold every other input steady and drop long-lead item impact severity to 3 score, then walk the calculation through step by step. Estimate supplier long-lead risk for tunnel boring and heavy civil equipment using production-ready inputs so teams can rank risks and decide which issue needs containment, controls, or escalation first.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Long-Lead Item Impact Severity (1-10): 3 score (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 6)
  • Late-Delivery Likelihood (1-10): 4 score (held at the documented default)
  • Early-Warning Detectability (1-10): 3 score (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Supplier long-lead risk score = supplier long-lead risk severity score × supplier long-lead risk occurrence score × supplier long-lead risk detection score.
  • Supplier long-lead risk score works out to 3.35 score at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Supplier long-lead risk severity score works out to 3 score at these inputs.
  • Supplier long-lead risk occurrence score works out to 4 score at these inputs.
  • Supplier long-lead risk detection score works out to 3 score at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where long-lead item impact severity sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 26.37% below the baseline at 3.35 score.
  • The practical read: the gap between this scenario and the baseline is entirely attributable to long-lead item impact severity, so recovering it is worth quantifying in dollars before considering equipment or staffing changes. The multiplicative score can mask a dangerous single dimension; a part with catastrophic severity but low occurrence gets a modest number even though a rare miss would still stop the drive, so read the individual scores, not just the product.

Results at a glance

  • Supplier long-lead risk score: 3.35 score (headline result)
  • Supplier long-lead risk severity score: 3 score
  • Supplier long-lead risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Supplier long-lead risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Supplier Long-Lead Risk calculator, set long-lead item impact severity to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.