Industrial Heat Pumps & Electrified Thermal Systems worked example

Supplier Risk with severity of supply disruption impact of 20 score: a worked example in industrial heat pumps & electrified thermal systems

What does the result look like when severity of supply disruption impact reaches 20 score? The full calculation is worked below with real intermediate numbers. Use it when supply chain and engineering teams are comparing risk across compressors, drives, valves, controls, refrigerants, heat exchangers, and pressure vessels.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Severity of supply disruption impact: 20 score (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 8)
  • Likelihood of a disruption occurring: 6 score (unchanged)
  • Difficulty of detecting the disruption early: 5 score (unchanged)
  • Strength of mitigation and dual-sourcing: 3 score (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Supplier risk score = supply impact severity × disruption likelihood × detection difficulty) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 11.35 score for mitigated supplier risk score, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 20 score for supply impact severity.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 6 score for disruption likelihood.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 5 score for detection difficulty.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where severity of supply disruption impact sits at 8 score and the headline result is 6.55 score, this scenario comes in 73.28% above the baseline at 11.35 score.
  • A figure at this level is achievable when severity of supply disruption impact is genuinely sustained, not just peaked for a shift. Multiplying ordinal 1-10 scores is a relative ranking tool, not an absolute probability; scores are only as consistent as the rubric your team applies.

Results at a glance

  • Mitigated supplier risk score: 11.35 score (headline result)
  • Supply impact severity: 20 score
  • Disruption likelihood: 6 score
  • Detection difficulty: 5 score

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Supplier Risk calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.