How do you calculate a supplier risk score?

Multiply severity by likelihood by detection difficulty for the raw risk, then subtract a mitigation credit. With severity 8, likelihood 6, and detection 5 the raw score is 240, and after the mitigation strength credit the model returns a mitigated score of 6.55 on its normalised scale.

What do severity, likelihood, and detection mean here?

Severity is how badly a disruption hurts the line, likelihood is how probable it is, and detection difficulty is how hard the problem is to catch before it bites. This mirrors FMEA's S x O x D logic adapted to supplier disruption rather than product failure modes.

Why subtract mitigation strength instead of multiplying?

Dual-sourcing, safety stock, and supplier audits reduce residual exposure even when the underlying severity and likelihood are unchanged. Treating mitigation as a credit shows the net risk you still carry after your countermeasures, which is what should drive priority.

What is a high supplier risk score?

Because the three factors multiply, scores climb fast — a part scoring 8/6/5 is already a serious concern. Rank suppliers relative to each other and set an action threshold; anything in your fleet's top decile warrants a dual-source plan.

How is this different from a generic vendor scorecard?

A scorecard rates past performance; this scores forward disruption risk and explicitly rewards the mitigations you have in place. Use them together — performance history feeds your likelihood and detection scores.

How often should I rescore suppliers?

Rescore at least quarterly and immediately after any disruption, lead-time shift, or refrigerant regulation change. Detection difficulty in particular drops as you add monitoring, so the mitigated score should improve as your visibility does.

Industrial Heat Pumps & Electrified Thermal Systems calculator

Heat Pump Supplier Risk Score Calculator

Supplier Risk produces a prioritisation score for the components and vendors feeding an industrial heat pump or electrified thermal program — compressors, scroll sets, controls, and refrigerant supply — using an FMEA-style severity x likelihood x detection model, then crediting your mitigation efforts. Supply chain and procurement engineers use it to rank which suppliers deserve dual-sourcing, safety stock, or audit attention before a shortage stalls a line. With compressor and semiconductor lead times still volatile and refrigerant supply under phase-down pressure, a single sole-sourced part can hold an entire build hostage. This calculator turns that intuition into a comparable number so the highest-risk vendors rise to the top of the action list.

What this calculator does

Score supplier risk for industrial heat pump components by combining impact severity, disruption likelihood, detection difficulty, and mitigation strength.
Use it when supply chain and engineering teams are comparing risk across compressors, drives, valves, controls, refrigerants, heat exchangers, and pressure vessels.
It computes a mitigated supplier risk score by multiplying impact severity, disruption likelihood, and detection difficulty, then subtracting a credit for mitigation strength.

Formula used

Supplier risk score = supply impact severity × disruption likelihood × detection difficulty
Mitigated supplier risk score = supplier risk score - mitigation strength credit

Inputs explained

Severity of supply disruption impact:
Likelihood of a disruption occurring:
Difficulty of detecting the disruption early:
Strength of mitigation and dual-sourcing:

How to use the result

Use it to rank suppliers for dual-sourcing, safety-stock, and audit priority during heat pump component sourcing and ramp planning.
Multiplying ordinal 1-10 scores is a relative ranking tool, not an absolute probability; scores are only as consistent as the rubric your team applies.

Current U.S. benchmarks

Global copper trades at $13,484 per tonne (IMF via FRED, May 2026), up 41.5% in a year, and U.S. industrial electricity averages 8.66 cents per kWh. Both feed electrified-hardware unit economics.
The U.S. has 21,668 machinery manufacturing establishments employing about 1,086,146 workers (Census County Business Patterns, 2023).

Common questions

How do you calculate a supplier risk score? Multiply severity by likelihood by detection difficulty for the raw risk, then subtract a mitigation credit. With severity 8, likelihood 6, and detection 5 the raw score is 240, and after the mitigation strength credit the model returns a mitigated score of 6.55 on its normalised scale.
What do severity, likelihood, and detection mean here? Severity is how badly a disruption hurts the line, likelihood is how probable it is, and detection difficulty is how hard the problem is to catch before it bites. This mirrors FMEA's S x O x D logic adapted to supplier disruption rather than product failure modes.
Why subtract mitigation strength instead of multiplying? Dual-sourcing, safety stock, and supplier audits reduce residual exposure even when the underlying severity and likelihood are unchanged. Treating mitigation as a credit shows the net risk you still carry after your countermeasures, which is what should drive priority.
What is a high supplier risk score? Because the three factors multiply, scores climb fast — a part scoring 8/6/5 is already a serious concern. Rank suppliers relative to each other and set an action threshold; anything in your fleet's top decile warrants a dual-source plan.
How is this different from a generic vendor scorecard? A scorecard rates past performance; this scores forward disruption risk and explicitly rewards the mitigations you have in place. Use them together — performance history feeds your likelihood and detection scores.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.