Industrial Heat Pumps & Electrified Thermal Systems worked example

Supplier Risk with severity of supply disruption impact of 4 score: a worked example in industrial heat pumps & electrified thermal systems

Here is what the math looks like when conditions slip. We hold every other input steady and drop severity of supply disruption impact to 4 score, then walk the calculation through step by step. Score supplier risk for industrial heat pump components by combining impact severity, disruption likelihood, detection difficulty, and mitigation strength.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Severity of supply disruption impact: 4 score (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 8)
  • Likelihood of a disruption occurring: 6 score (held at the documented default)
  • Difficulty of detecting the disruption early: 5 score (held at the documented default)
  • Strength of mitigation and dual-sourcing: 3 score (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Supplier risk score = supply impact severity × disruption likelihood × detection difficulty.
  • Mitigated supplier risk score works out to 4.95 score at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Supply impact severity works out to 4 score at these inputs.
  • Disruption likelihood works out to 6 score at these inputs.
  • Detection difficulty works out to 5 score at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where severity of supply disruption impact sits at 8 score and the headline result is 6.55 score, this scenario comes in 24.43% below the baseline at 4.95 score.
  • The practical read: the gap between this scenario and the baseline is entirely attributable to severity of supply disruption impact, so recovering it is worth quantifying in dollars before considering equipment or staffing changes. Multiplying ordinal 1-10 scores is a relative ranking tool, not an absolute probability; scores are only as consistent as the rubric your team applies.

Results at a glance

  • Mitigated supplier risk score: 4.95 score (headline result)
  • Supply impact severity: 4 score
  • Disruption likelihood: 6 score
  • Detection difficulty: 5 score

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Supplier Risk calculator, set severity of supply disruption impact to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.