Manufacturing Project Portfolio & Capex worked example

Project Delay Cost at 98% likelihood the delay materializes: a worked example

What does the result look like when likelihood the delay materializes reaches 98%? The full calculation is worked below with real intermediate numbers. A project manager quantifying the dollar exposure of a line-installation delay to justify recovery spend.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Weeks of schedule slip: 6 weeks (unchanged)
  • Burn rate per week of delay: 22,000 $/week (unchanged)
  • Likelihood the delay materializes: 98 % (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 85)
  • Fixed penalties & remobilization: 15,000 $ (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Delay cost = weeks of delay x cost per week x schedule risk exposure + penalty & remobilization) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 144,360 $ for total project delay cost, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 24,060 $ / piece for project delay cost per unit.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 129,360 $ for variable project delay cost.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 15,000 $ for fixed project delay cost adder.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where likelihood the delay materializes sits at 85% and the headline result is 127,200 $, this scenario comes in 13.49% above the baseline at 144,360 $.
  • A figure at this level is achievable when likelihood the delay materializes is genuinely sustained, not just peaked for a shift. Weekly burn and risk exposure are estimates — garbage inputs give a confident-looking but wrong number, so document your assumptions.

Results at a glance

  • Total project delay cost: 144,360 $ (headline result)
  • Project delay cost per unit: 24,060 $ / piece
  • Variable project delay cost: 129,360 $
  • Fixed project delay cost adder: 15,000 $

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Project Delay Cost calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.