Manufacturing Project Portfolio & Capex worked example

Project Delay Cost at 61% likelihood the delay materializes: a worked example

Suppose likelihood the delay materializes falls to 61%. This page works the full calculation at that level so you can see exactly which result moves and by how much. Estimate the cost of a schedule slip on a manufacturing capex project, including penalties and remobilization.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Weeks of schedule slip: 6 weeks (held at the documented default)
  • Burn rate per week of delay: 22,000 $/week (held at the documented default)
  • Likelihood the delay materializes: 61 % (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 85)
  • Fixed penalties & remobilization: 15,000 $ (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Delay cost = weeks of delay x cost per week x schedule risk exposure + penalty & remobilization.
  • Total project delay cost works out to 95,520 $ at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Project delay cost per unit works out to 15,920 $ / piece at these inputs.
  • Variable project delay cost works out to 80,520 $ at these inputs.
  • Fixed project delay cost adder works out to 15,000 $ at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where likelihood the delay materializes sits at 85% and the headline result is 127,200 $, this scenario comes in 24.91% below the baseline at 95,520 $.
  • It computes the total cost of a delay as probability-weighted weekly burn plus fixed penalty and remobilization costs. When the numbers land here, the stressed input is the lever to work; the walkthrough above shows exactly how much each output recovers as it climbs back toward the baseline.

Results at a glance

  • Total project delay cost: 95,520 $ (headline result)
  • Project delay cost per unit: 15,920 $ / piece
  • Variable project delay cost: 80,520 $
  • Fixed project delay cost adder: 15,000 $

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Project Delay Cost calculator, set likelihood the delay materializes to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.