Manufacturing Sales Engineering, Estimating & Quoting Operations worked example

Lead-Time Promise Risk with severity of a missed lead-time promise of 15 score: a worked example

What does the result look like when severity of a missed lead-time promise reaches 15 score? The full calculation is worked below with real intermediate numbers. Use it when lead-time promise risk in manufacturing sales engineering, estimating and quoting operations needs a defensible ranking against other manufacturing sales engineering, estimating and quoting operations risks for the next review.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Severity of a missed lead-time promise: 15 score (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 6)
  • Likelihood the promised date slips: 4 score (unchanged)
  • Ability to detect a slip before the due date: 3 score (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Lead-time promise risk score = lead-time promise risk severity score × lead-time promise risk occurrence score × lead-time promise risk detection score) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 8.15 score for lead-time promise risk score, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 15 score for lead-time promise risk severity score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 4 score for lead-time promise risk occurrence score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 3 score for lead-time promise risk detection score.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where severity of a missed lead-time promise sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 79.12% above the baseline at 8.15 score.
  • A figure at this level is achievable when severity of a missed lead-time promise is genuinely sustained, not just peaked for a shift. The score is only as good as your scoring scale; severity, occurrence, and detection ratings are judgment-based and must be applied consistently across quotes to be comparable.

Results at a glance

  • Lead-time promise risk score: 8.15 score (headline result)
  • Lead-time promise risk severity score: 15 score
  • Lead-time promise risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Lead-time promise risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Lead-Time Promise Risk calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.