Manufacturing Sales Engineering, Estimating & Quoting Operations worked example

Lead-Time Promise Risk with severity of a missed lead-time promise of 3 score: a worked example

Suppose severity of a missed lead-time promise falls to 3 score. This page works the full calculation at that level so you can see exactly which result moves and by how much. Estimate lead-time promise risk for manufacturing sales engineering, estimating and quoting operations using production-ready inputs so teams can rank risks and decide which issue needs containment, controls, or escalation first.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Severity of a missed lead-time promise: 3 score (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 6)
  • Likelihood the promised date slips: 4 score (held at the documented default)
  • Ability to detect a slip before the due date: 3 score (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Lead-time promise risk score = lead-time promise risk severity score × lead-time promise risk occurrence score × lead-time promise risk detection score.
  • Lead-time promise risk score works out to 3.35 score at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Lead-time promise risk severity score works out to 3 score at these inputs.
  • Lead-time promise risk occurrence score works out to 4 score at these inputs.
  • Lead-time promise risk detection score works out to 3 score at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where severity of a missed lead-time promise sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 26.37% below the baseline at 3.35 score.
  • Multiplies severity, slip-likelihood, and detection scores into a single lead-time risk priority number for a quoted delivery date. When the numbers land here, the stressed input is the lever to work; the walkthrough above shows exactly how much each output recovers as it climbs back toward the baseline.

Results at a glance

  • Lead-time promise risk score: 3.35 score (headline result)
  • Lead-time promise risk severity score: 3 score
  • Lead-time promise risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Lead-time promise risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Lead-Time Promise Risk calculator, set severity of a missed lead-time promise to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.