How do you calculate lead-time promise risk?

Score severity, slip likelihood, and detectability on the same scale, then multiply them. With severity 6, occurrence 4, and detection 3 you get a risk priority number you can rank against other promised dates.

What is a good lead-time risk score?

Lower is better. There is no universal threshold, but within one scoring scale the highest-scoring promises are the ones to buffer first; treat anything in your top quartile as needing an expedite plan or a longer quoted date.

What does the detection score mean for delivery dates?

It rates how early you would catch a slip: a low detection score means your scheduling system or supplier visibility would flag a problem with time to recover, while a high score means you would learn only when the part is already late.

Why multiply the three scores instead of adding them?

Multiplication makes risk explode when all three are bad and stay low when any one is well controlled. A late part is far more dangerous when it is high-impact, likely, and invisible at once than when only one factor is elevated.

Lead-time risk vs. a simple schedule buffer: which is better?

They work together. The risk score tells you which promises deserve a buffer; the buffer is the action. Buffering every date equally pads quotes uncompetitively, so use the score to spend your contingency where exposure is highest.

How often should I rescore lead-time risk?

Rescore whenever a driver changes: a new supplier, a shop-loading spike, or a customer penalty clause all move severity, occurrence, or detection and can flip a safe promise into a high-risk one.

Manufacturing Sales Engineering, Estimating & Quoting Operations calculator

Lead-time promise risk Calculator

Lead-time promise risk is an FMEA-style score that tells a quoting team how dangerous a promised ship date actually is before they put it in front of a customer. It multiplies the severity of missing the date, the likelihood the schedule slips, and how well you would detect a slip in time to react. Estimators and operations planners use it to triage which promises need a buffer, an expedite plan, or a frank conversation with the customer. A high score on a strategic account is a flag to commit fewer days or add contingency, not to gamble the relationship.

What this calculator does

Estimate lead-time promise risk for manufacturing sales engineering, estimating and quoting operations using production-ready inputs so teams can rank risks and decide which issue needs containment, controls, or escalation first.
Use it when lead-time promise risk in manufacturing sales engineering, estimating and quoting operations needs a defensible ranking against other manufacturing sales engineering, estimating and quoting operations risks for the next review.
Multiplies severity, slip-likelihood, and detection scores into a single lead-time risk priority number for a quoted delivery date.

Formula used

Lead-time promise risk score = lead-time promise risk severity score × lead-time promise risk occurrence score × lead-time promise risk detection score
Use the same scoring scale across comparable lead-time promise risk risks.

Inputs explained

Severity of a missed lead-time promise:
Likelihood the promised date slips:
Ability to detect a slip before the due date:

How to use the result

Use it during quote review to rank which promised dates carry the most exposure so planning effort goes where it matters.
The score is only as good as your scoring scale; severity, occurrence, and detection ratings are judgment-based and must be applied consistently across quotes to be comparable.

Current U.S. benchmarks

The U.S. prime lending rate is 6.75% (Federal Reserve via FRED, 2026-07-02). Payback and financing math should start from today's rate, not a remembered one.
U.S. manufacturing runs at 75.6% of capacity (Federal Reserve, May 2026). New factory orders are up 2.3% year over year (Census).

Common questions

How do you calculate lead-time promise risk? Score severity, slip likelihood, and detectability on the same scale, then multiply them. With severity 6, occurrence 4, and detection 3 you get a risk priority number you can rank against other promised dates.
What is a good lead-time risk score? Lower is better. There is no universal threshold, but within one scoring scale the highest-scoring promises are the ones to buffer first; treat anything in your top quartile as needing an expedite plan or a longer quoted date.
What does the detection score mean for delivery dates? It rates how early you would catch a slip: a low detection score means your scheduling system or supplier visibility would flag a problem with time to recover, while a high score means you would learn only when the part is already late.
Why multiply the three scores instead of adding them? Multiplication makes risk explode when all three are bad and stay low when any one is well controlled. A late part is far more dangerous when it is high-impact, likely, and invisible at once than when only one factor is elevated.
Lead-time risk vs. a simple schedule buffer: which is better? They work together. The risk score tells you which promises deserve a buffer; the buffer is the action. Buffering every date equally pads quotes uncompetitively, so use the score to spend your contingency where exposure is highest.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.