Oil, Gas & Energy Equipment Manufacturing worked example

Project Overrun Risk with overrun severity score of 15 score: a worked example

This scenario runs the project overrun risk calculation on the strong side: overrun severity score of 15 score, with every other input held at its documented default. Use it when ranking project overrun risks for a project review and you need a defensible score to compare one risk against another.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Overrun severity score: 15 score (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 6)
  • Overrun likelihood score: 4 score (unchanged)
  • Detection difficulty score: 3 score (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Project overrun risk score = overrun severity score × overrun likelihood score × detection difficulty score) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 8.15 score for project overrun risk score, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 15 score for overrun severity score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 4 score for overrun likelihood score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 3 score for detection difficulty score.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where overrun severity score sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 79.12% above the baseline at 8.15 score.
  • Use it at project kickoff and at each stage gate to compare overrun risks across a portfolio and target mitigation effort. Treat this as a target state: the delta against the baseline quantifies what the improvement is worth before you commit to chasing it.

Results at a glance

  • Project overrun risk score: 8.15 score (headline result)
  • Overrun severity score: 15 score
  • Overrun likelihood score: 4 score
  • Detection difficulty score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Project Overrun Risk calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.