Oil, Gas & Energy Equipment Manufacturing worked example

Project Overrun Risk with overrun severity score of 3 score: a worked example

Suppose overrun severity score falls to 3 score. This page works the full calculation at that level so you can see exactly which result moves and by how much. Score the risk of a fabrication project overrunning its schedule or budget, from severity, likelihood, and detection, so project engineers can rank exposures and decide which one needs controls or escalation first.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Overrun severity score: 3 score (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 6)
  • Overrun likelihood score: 4 score (held at the documented default)
  • Detection difficulty score: 3 score (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Project overrun risk score = overrun severity score × overrun likelihood score × detection difficulty score.
  • Project overrun risk score works out to 3.35 score at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Overrun severity score works out to 3 score at these inputs.
  • Overrun likelihood score works out to 4 score at these inputs.
  • Detection difficulty score works out to 3 score at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where overrun severity score sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 26.37% below the baseline at 3.35 score.
  • It multiplies severity, likelihood and detection scores into a single project overrun risk number for ranking and prioritization. When the numbers land here, the stressed input is the lever to work; the walkthrough above shows exactly how much each output recovers as it climbs back toward the baseline.

Results at a glance

  • Project overrun risk score: 3.35 score (headline result)
  • Overrun severity score: 3 score
  • Overrun likelihood score: 4 score
  • Detection difficulty score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Project Overrun Risk calculator, set overrun severity score to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.