Why multiply the three scores?

It follows the risk priority number logic from failure mode and effects analysis. A severe, likely, hard-to-detect overrun outranks one that is easy to catch, and the product ranks all three at once.

What threshold should I set?

Start from the scores of past overruns and set it below the lowest of them. Then tune it so the review list stays short enough to act on at each stage gate.

Is this the same as failure mode and effects analysis?

No. It borrows the scoring approach for project overrun exposure, not for a product or process failure mode. Use your own severity, likelihood and detection definitions and keep them fixed.

Can the same project appear twice?

Yes, score each distinct overrun risk separately, such as a supplier slip and a scope change, so the review list points at the exposure itself.

Oil, Gas & Energy Equipment Manufacturing calculator

Project Overrun Risk Calculator

Rank project overrun risks by multiplying severity, likelihood and detection difficulty on a common 1 to 10 scale. A score above the review threshold flags the risk for controls or escalation.

What this calculator does

Score fabrication project overrun risk from severity, likelihood and detection scores on a 1 to 10 scale, checked against a review threshold.

Formula used

Project overrun risk score = overrun severity score × overrun likelihood score × detection difficulty score
Severity times likelihood = overrun severity score × overrun likelihood score
Risk vs review threshold = review threshold score − project overrun risk score, negative when over

Inputs explained

Overrun Severity Score: How severe an overrun would be, on the 1 to 10 scale.
Overrun Likelihood Score: How likely the overrun is, on the same 1 to 10 scale.
Detection Difficulty Score: How hard the overrun is to detect early, on the same scale.
Review Threshold Score: Score above which the risk goes to project review.

How to use the result

Best suited to screening risks at project kickoff, prioritizing mitigations at a stage gate, comparing overrun risks across a portfolio.
The product is a ranking index, not a probability or a currency amount. Scores are not unit-converted; they only compare within one scoring scale.

Current U.S. benchmarks

Industrial electricity averages 9.77 cents per kWh across the U.S. (EIA, Jul 2026), up 4.7% from a year earlier. Energy-intensive steps carry this directly into unit cost.
Steel mill PPI stands at 381.162 (BLS, Aug 2026), up 23.4% from a year earlier. New factory orders are up 8.5% year over year (Census).

Common questions

Why multiply the three scores? It follows the risk priority number logic from failure mode and effects analysis. A severe, likely, hard-to-detect overrun outranks one that is easy to catch, and the product ranks all three at once.
What threshold should I set? Start from the scores of past overruns and set it below the lowest of them. Then tune it so the review list stays short enough to act on at each stage gate.
Is this the same as failure mode and effects analysis? No. It borrows the scoring approach for project overrun exposure, not for a product or process failure mode. Use your own severity, likelihood and detection definitions and keep them fixed.
Can the same project appear twice? Yes, score each distinct overrun risk separately, such as a supplier slip and a scope change, so the review list points at the exposure itself.

Last reviewed 2026-10-01.