How do you calculate a project overrun risk score?

Multiply the severity score by the likelihood score by the detection difficulty score. The result is an RPN-style number used to rank risks against each other on the same scale.

What is a high overrun risk score?

There is no universal threshold — it depends on your scale. Rank scores within the portfolio and set a mitigation cutoff for the top tier; the absolute value matters less than relative position.

Why multiply instead of add the three scores?

Multiplying makes a risk that is severe, likely and hard to detect dominate the ranking, which is the point — it surfaces compounded danger rather than averaging it away.

What does detection difficulty mean for project overruns?

It rates how late you would notice the overrun forming. A risk you can see in weekly earned-value data scores low; one that only surfaces at final test scores high.

How is this different from a simple risk matrix?

A 2x2 matrix uses only severity and likelihood. Adding detection difficulty captures whether you would catch the problem in time to act, which a matrix ignores.

Can I compare scores across different projects?

Only if you used the same scoring scale and anchor definitions for every project. Inconsistent scales make the comparison meaningless.

Oil, Gas & Energy Equipment Manufacturing calculator

Project overrun risk Calculator

Project overrun risk applies FMEA-style scoring to capital equipment builds — separators, skids, turbine packages — where a schedule or cost overrun can trigger liquidated damages and burn margin. You rate how bad an overrun would be (severity), how likely it is (likelihood), and how hard it would be to catch early (detection), then multiply to get a single risk score that ranks one project or risk driver against another. Project managers and PMO leads in oil and gas equipment manufacturing use it in stage-gate reviews to focus mitigation where it pays off. The discipline is keeping the scoring scale consistent so the numbers are comparable.

What this calculator does

Score the risk of a fabrication project overrunning its schedule or budget, from severity, likelihood, and detection, so project engineers can rank exposures and decide which one needs controls or escalation first.
Use it when ranking project overrun risks for a project review and you need a defensible score to compare one risk against another.
It multiplies severity, likelihood and detection scores into a single project overrun risk number for ranking and prioritization.

Formula used

Project overrun risk score = overrun severity score × overrun likelihood score × detection difficulty score
Use the same scoring scale across comparable project overrun risks.

Inputs explained

Overrun severity score:
Overrun likelihood score:
Detection difficulty score:

How to use the result

Use it at project kickoff and at each stage gate to compare overrun risks across a portfolio and target mitigation effort.
It is a relative ranking tool, not a probability — a score is only meaningful against other scores rated on the same scale.

Current U.S. benchmarks

Industrial electricity averages 8.66 cents per kWh across the U.S. (EIA, Apr 2026), up 5.5% from a year earlier. Energy-intensive steps carry this directly into unit cost.
Steel mill PPI stands at 348.53 (BLS, May 2026), up 6.7% from a year earlier. New factory orders are up 2.3% year over year (Census).

Common questions

How do you calculate a project overrun risk score? Multiply the severity score by the likelihood score by the detection difficulty score. The result is an RPN-style number used to rank risks against each other on the same scale.
What is a high overrun risk score? There is no universal threshold — it depends on your scale. Rank scores within the portfolio and set a mitigation cutoff for the top tier; the absolute value matters less than relative position.
Why multiply instead of add the three scores? Multiplying makes a risk that is severe, likely and hard to detect dominate the ranking, which is the point — it surfaces compounded danger rather than averaging it away.
What does detection difficulty mean for project overruns? It rates how late you would notice the overrun forming. A risk you can see in weekly earned-value data scores low; one that only surfaces at final test scores high.
How is this different from a simple risk matrix? A 2x2 matrix uses only severity and likelihood. Adding detection difficulty captures whether you would catch the problem in time to act, which a matrix ignores.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.