S&OP, Demand Planning & Forecasting worked example

Launch Demand Risk with demand-shortfall severity if the launch misses of 15 score: a worked example

This scenario runs the launch demand risk calculation on the strong side: demand-shortfall severity if the launch misses of 15 score, with every other input held at its documented default. Use it when launch demand risk in s and op, demand planning and forecasting needs a defensible ranking against other s and op, demand planning and forecasting risks for the next review.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Demand-shortfall severity if the launch misses (1-10): 15 score (raised for this scenario; the documented default is 6)
  • Likelihood the launch forecast is wrong (1-10): 4 score (unchanged)
  • Ability to detect the demand miss early (1-10): 3 score (unchanged)

Working through the calculation

  • Applying the documented formula (Launch demand risk score = launch demand risk severity score × launch demand risk occurrence score × launch demand risk detection score) to the inputs above produces each figure below.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 8.15 score for launch demand risk score, the number this scenario is built around.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 15 score for launch demand risk severity score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 4 score for launch demand risk occurrence score.
  • At this operating point the engine returns 3 score for launch demand risk detection score.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where demand-shortfall severity if the launch misses sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 79.12% above the baseline at 8.15 score.
  • Use it when planning a wave of product launches and you need to rank which forecasts deserve extra scrutiny, hedged inventory or a build-to-signal approach. Treat this as a target state: the delta against the baseline quantifies what the improvement is worth before you commit to chasing it.

Results at a glance

  • Launch demand risk score: 8.15 score (headline result)
  • Launch demand risk severity score: 15 score
  • Launch demand risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Launch demand risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • Every input above is editable in the live Launch Demand Risk calculator, which recalculates instantly and can be shared with the inputs intact.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.