How do you calculate launch demand risk?

Multiply the severity score by the occurrence score by the detection score, exactly like an FMEA risk priority number. The result ranks launches so you can focus attention on the highest-risk forecasts first.

What do severity, occurrence and detection mean here?

Severity is how damaging a demand miss would be, occurrence is how likely the launch forecast is to be wrong, and detection is how hard it is to spot the miss in time. Higher scores mean more risk on every axis, including poor detection.

What is a good launch demand risk score?

On a 1-10 scale the number can reach 1,000. There is no fixed threshold - it is a relative ranking. Score your whole launch portfolio the same way and act on the top decile or two first.

Why multiply the scores instead of adding them?

Multiplying makes any single high axis dominate - a launch that is severe, likely to miss and hard to detect scores far higher than one weak on just one axis, which mirrors how launch risk actually compounds.

How is this different from a normal forecast error metric?

Error metrics need actuals and look backward. This is a forward, pre-launch triage tool that works with no sales history, ranking risk before you have any demand signal to measure.

How do I make detection scores reliable?

Anchor the scale: a 1 might mean you get daily POS sell-through in week one, a 10 means you're blind until quarter-end. Without anchors teams over-rate their detection and understate real risk.

S&OP, Demand Planning & Forecasting calculator

Launch Demand Risk Calculator

Launch Demand Risk applies FMEA-style risk scoring to new-product launch forecasts, combining how bad a demand miss would be, how likely the forecast is to be wrong, and how well you'd catch the miss early. Product launch teams and demand planners use it to rank which launches need the most forecasting attention and inventory hedging. It matters because launch forecasts are the least reliable forecasts you'll ever make - no history, lots of hype - and a single mis-sized launch can either strand cash in unsold stock or blow a lucrative introduction on stockouts. Turning gut feel into a comparable risk number lets you triage a launch portfolio.

What this calculator does

Estimate launch demand risk for sandop, demand planning and forecasting using production-ready inputs so teams can rank risks and decide which issue needs containment, controls, or escalation first.
Use it when launch demand risk in s and op, demand planning and forecasting needs a defensible ranking against other s and op, demand planning and forecasting risks for the next review.
It multiplies severity, occurrence and detection scores into a single launch demand risk priority number, in the spirit of an FMEA RPN.

Formula used

Launch demand risk score = launch demand risk severity score × launch demand risk occurrence score × launch demand risk detection score
Use the same scoring scale across comparable launch demand risk risks.

Inputs explained

Demand-shortfall severity if the launch misses (1-10):
Likelihood the launch forecast is wrong (1-10):
Ability to detect the demand miss early (1-10):

How to use the result

Use it when planning a wave of product launches and you need to rank which forecasts deserve extra scrutiny, hedged inventory or a build-to-signal approach.
Multiplicative risk scores are ordinal, not linear - a score of 120 is not literally twice as risky as 60, and detection is easy to score optimistically, so use consistent anchored scales.

Current U.S. benchmarks

The producer price index for steel mill products stands at 348.53 (BLS, May 2026), up 6.7% from a year earlier. Quotes priced off last quarter's material cost miss this move.
The U.S. has 3,569 primary metal manufacturing establishments employing about 354,911 workers (Census County Business Patterns, 2023).

Common questions

How do you calculate launch demand risk? Multiply the severity score by the occurrence score by the detection score, exactly like an FMEA risk priority number. The result ranks launches so you can focus attention on the highest-risk forecasts first.
What do severity, occurrence and detection mean here? Severity is how damaging a demand miss would be, occurrence is how likely the launch forecast is to be wrong, and detection is how hard it is to spot the miss in time. Higher scores mean more risk on every axis, including poor detection.
What is a good launch demand risk score? On a 1-10 scale the number can reach 1,000. There is no fixed threshold - it is a relative ranking. Score your whole launch portfolio the same way and act on the top decile or two first.
Why multiply the scores instead of adding them? Multiplying makes any single high axis dominate - a launch that is severe, likely to miss and hard to detect scores far higher than one weak on just one axis, which mirrors how launch risk actually compounds.
How is this different from a normal forecast error metric? Error metrics need actuals and look backward. This is a forward, pre-launch triage tool that works with no sales history, ranking risk before you have any demand signal to measure.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.