S&OP, Demand Planning & Forecasting worked example

Launch Demand Risk with demand-shortfall severity if the launch misses of 3 score: a worked example

Suppose demand-shortfall severity if the launch misses falls to 3 score. This page works the full calculation at that level so you can see exactly which result moves and by how much. Estimate launch demand risk for sandop, demand planning and forecasting using production-ready inputs so teams can rank risks and decide which issue needs containment, controls, or escalation first.

The inputs for this scenario

  • Demand-shortfall severity if the launch misses (1-10): 3 score (the input this scenario stresses; the baseline uses 6)
  • Likelihood the launch forecast is wrong (1-10): 4 score (held at the documented default)
  • Ability to detect the demand miss early (1-10): 3 score (held at the documented default)

Working through the calculation

  • The calculation starts from the formula this tool documents: Launch demand risk score = launch demand risk severity score × launch demand risk occurrence score × launch demand risk detection score.
  • Launch demand risk score works out to 3.35 score at these inputs, and this is the headline figure for the scenario.
  • Launch demand risk severity score works out to 3 score at these inputs.
  • Launch demand risk occurrence score works out to 4 score at these inputs.
  • Launch demand risk detection score works out to 3 score at these inputs.

How this compares with the baseline

  • Against the tool's baseline example, where demand-shortfall severity if the launch misses sits at 6 score and the headline result is 4.55 score, this scenario comes in 26.37% below the baseline at 3.35 score.
  • It multiplies severity, occurrence and detection scores into a single launch demand risk priority number, in the spirit of an FMEA RPN. When the numbers land here, the stressed input is the lever to work; the walkthrough above shows exactly how much each output recovers as it climbs back toward the baseline.

Results at a glance

  • Launch demand risk score: 3.35 score (headline result)
  • Launch demand risk severity score: 3 score
  • Launch demand risk occurrence score: 4 score
  • Launch demand risk detection score: 3 score

Run it with your numbers

  • To rerun this with your own numbers, open the live Launch Demand Risk calculator, set demand-shortfall severity if the launch misses to your actual value, and adjust the remaining inputs to match your operation.

Last reviewed 2026-05-12.